At the Half 2026

by Dennis Michelsen

Every week on the Science of Fantasy Football, Professor John Bush and I talk about how similar horse race handicapping can be to forecasting Fantasy Football. Many of the lessons we learned at the horse track can be applied to our Fantasy Football methods. It’s hard to believe that we are already past the halfway point of the 2026 season. 

In Harness Racing, whenever I watched a race, I knew whether I was more or less likely to have a winning ticket based on what the field looked like at the half-mile mark. If my front runner had the master of pace, Joe O’Brien, in the bike and that second quarter was a stroll, I knew he would have something left for the stretch run. We were never looking for those freak winners in horse racing; we were looking for those situations that would repeat themselves. 

In Fantasy Football, at the halfway point, we know which players have been potential winners for us and which players aren’t going to help. Let’s look back at my most drafted players by position and see how I did this year. I will also show my FPPC Redraft results at the half-mile mark of the 2026 Fantasy Football Season.  

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose with a very low-scoring week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median output. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex-starting decisions all season. Target MVP is the expected MVP Rating by ADP. 

QB Exposure in 1QB (17 Leagues)

Patrick Mahomes (10 Shares) MVP26 of 87

Nice late draft pick has paid off as a part-time starter this season

Jared Goff (8 Shares) MVP26 of 87

Another value pick that has paid off nicely

Caleb Williams (4 Shares) MVP26 of 50

Injury cost him a few games, but he's a strong starting option going forward.

Drake Maye (3 Shares) MVP26 of 100

My most expensive QB has paid off

Sam Darnold (3 Shares) MVP26 of 28

Backup has only been used once among 3 teams

QB Exposure in Superflex (6 Leagues)

Patrick Mahomes (4 Shares) MVP26 of 87

Superflex QB2 bargain

Drake Maye (3 Shares) MVP26 of 100

Anchor starter for some strong teams

Joe Burrow (2 Shares) MVP26 of 162

Having an MVP-level season

Aaron Rodgers (2 Shares) MVP26 of 62

Nice QB3 asset in Superflex leagues

Jared Goff (2 Shares) MVP26 of 87

Cheap QB2 choice

Tyler Shough (2 Shares) MVP26 of 100

Rushing upside gives a nice floor when needed

RB Exposure (23 Leagues)

Rachaad White (12 Shares) MVP26 of 28

Very late choice starting to pay off with other injuries

Jonah Coleman (12 Shares) MVP26 of 60

Another nice value pick that is emerging in the second half, as expected

Emmett Johnson (11 Shares) MVP26 of 200

Just an insurance piece

D’Andre Swift (10 Shares) MVP26 of 100

My best value pick this season

Jonathon Brooks (8 Shares) MVP26 of INJ

Derailed by injury again

Kaleon Black (7 Shares) MVP26 of -50

Just an insurance piece

Rhamondre Stevenson (7 Shares) MVP26 of 56

Emerged as their RB1 before getting hurt

Kenneth Walker (6 Shares) MVP26 of 162

Best second-round pick this year

Kyren Williams (5 Shares) MVP26 of 100

Splits volume but still solid at cost

Bucky Irving (5 Shares) MVP26 of 122

Another solid value pick

JK Dobbins (5 Shares) MVP26 of -22

Has been a flop

James Cook (4 Shares) MVP26 of 125

Shares limited only by draft slot

Chase Brown (4 Shares) MVP26 of 62

Been a little disappointing at cost so far

Zach Charbonnet (4 Shares) MVP26 of 0

Late-season emergence was expected

Chris Rodriguez (4 Shares) MVP26 of -12

Was a cheap depth piece

Mike Washington (4 Shares) MVP26 of -44 

Just an insurance piece

TreyVeon Henderson (4 Shares) MVP26 of -50

Freak injury has derailed his season so far

David Montgomery (4 Shares) MVP26 of -20

Great week one and then flop city

Nicholas Singleton (4 Shares) MVP26 of -100

Has never earned a chance with Pollard so strong

WR Exposure (23 Leagues) 

Chris Olave (11 Shares) MVP26 of 112

One of the best value picks at WR again this season

Makai Lemon (11 Shares) MVP26 of 0

Only drafted for late-season potential

Demarcus Robinson (8 Shares) MVP26 of 33

Added shares since the draft for depth piece

Rome Odunze (8 Shares) MVP26 of 44

Burden was the better choice amongthe  Bears’ WRs

Matthew Golden (7 Shares) MVP26 of 133

Another great value pick this season

Marvin Harrison (7 Shares) MVP26 of -43

Traded to a better spot but still hasn’t done anything

Emeka Egbuka (7 Shares) MVP26 of 57

Should be a factor in the second half of the season with Baker back

AJ Brown (6 Shares) MVP26 of 0

Injury derailed his season in week one

Jaxon Smith Njigba (5 Shares) MVP26 of 178

No drop-off with new OC as expected

Rashee Rice (5 Shares) MVP26 of 33

Up and down season, but so far, a disappointment 

Brian Thomas (5 Shares) MVP26 of -50

Total flop of a pick, but he was cheap. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (4 Shares) MVP26 of 137

JSN, ARS, and Nacua were my favorite round one picks and all gold

Stefon Diggs (4 Shares) MVP26 of 71

Has been a nice plug-and-play

DeeboSamuell (4 Shares) MVP26 of 40

Was solid before injury 

Treylon Burks (4 Shares) MVP26 of 50

Depth piece picked up after the draft

TE Exposure (23 Leagues)

Travis Kelce (9 Shares) MVP26 of 62

Part of my old guy caravan at TE this season

Juwan Johnson (7 Shares) MVP26 of 50

A few bad games but otherwise a solid pick

TJ Hockenson (7 Shares) MVP26 of 37

Has been a solid player despite lousy QB play so far

Mason Taylor (7 Shares) MVP26 of -28 

Depth piece picked up after the draft

Tyler Higbee (4 Shares) MVP26 of -22

Depth piece picked up after the draft

FFPC League Performance Superflex (6 Leagues)

There are no weekly matchups in FFPC Redraft; we only play for points during the regular season. 

Best Team: Second Place and 184 points ahead of 6th place, averaging 151 points per week

4 of 6 teams in the Top 6 (Playoff Position) 

Worst Team: 7th place, 61 points, out ofthe  playoffs, averaging 129 points per week

FFPC League Performance 1QB (17 Leagues)

There are no weekly matchups in FFPC Redraft; we only play for points during the regular season.

Best Team: First Place and 292 points ahead of 6th place, averaging 165 points per week

12 of 17 teams in the Top 6 (Playoff Position) 

Worst Team: 12th place, 169 points out of the  playoffs, averaging 114 points per week

Conclusion 

It’s hard to believe the NFL season is half over already; it seems like it was just last week the Professor and I were showing off our research posters at the Fantasy Football Expo. 

This season in 1QB leagues, I avoided the super expensive QBs, with Drake Maye as my earliest QB pick, followed by Joe Burrow mainly in the 7th round. My late QB investments of Mahomes and Goff have paid off too.

Rachaad White and Jonah Coleman were two late draft picks that should pay off in the second half of the season as expected. Swift and Irving might be my best value picks,s and getting lots of Kenneth Walker in the second round will pay off too. 

Twelve of my seventeen 1QB leagues started with an elite WR as my first selection,n and that has worked great. Chris Olave has been a solid value, and I hit a grand slam investing in so much Matthew Golden. Marvin Harrison and Brian Thomas have both been flops, but allowing only one risky player of that type per roster at WR has also paid off. 

I only grabbed two early TE shares, but I am happy with the results at the position: my duo of Kelce and Kittle on two teams, plus diversification with 1 or 2 shares of 8 different players who have been more productive than their ADP cost. 

At the end of the season, I will do a postmortem on my best teams to see what patterns repeat themselves and might help me be even better next year. Likewise, I will look for common failure points on my bad teams to see which strategies I might want to avoid next season. 

Overall, I am pleased with where my teams are heading into the second half of the season, with only 1 of 23 teams more than 100 points out of the playoffs and 7 teams more than 100 points ahead for that last playoff spot.