1. Core Data Inputs

Consensus lines as of Tuesday afternoon, Sept. 22. Implied totals = (total ± spread) / 2. Offensive EPA/play is current 2026 regular-season (through Week 2).

Notes on the rest flags: 

Green Bay is Limited because Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner Exempt List. 

Cleveland is Full at QB (Deshaun Watson) with a wounded backfield.

 Houston is Limited with Nico Collins Doubtful and Tank Dell already out. 

New York Giants: Jaxson Dart Expected DNP. 

Washington: Jayden Daniels Expected DNP. 

Seattle: Sam Darnold Unknown (Drew Lock is the live unit until Darnold practices). 

Dallas/Baltimore is a neutral-site travel week in Rio; Zay Flowers is Questionable. 

Las Vegas: Brock Bowers is questionable, expected back. 

Denver: J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey both Questionable. 

Chicago: Caleb Williams is week-to-week (hamstring), and Tyson Bagent is also in concussion protocol. 

Philadelphia: Saquon Barkley is questionable (stinger); Dallas Goedert is out. 

Atlanta EPA is the Week 1–2 Cooper Rush/backup sample; Michael Penix Jr. is expected to start Thursday and is not that EPA unit.

Label notes applied automatically: 

Strong is used only where the live spread, implied totals, and confirmed quarterbacks still allow a realistic two-score game (Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco). 

Seattle’s -7 number is large, but Sam Darnold’s status is Unknown, and Drew Lock is the live unit, so both labels are capped at Mild. 

Green Bay is capped at Mild Positive because the Packers’ own 2026 EPA is negative and Jacobs is out. 

Chicago/Philadelphia is capped by the unresolved Bears quarterback and Barkley’s stinger. 

Giants/Titans is Neutral because Winston is the live Giants quarterback and the total is 40.5. 

Ravens/Cowboys stays Neutral despite the 52.5 total: both offenses are live, the spread is only a field goal, and the game is a long-travel neutral site.

4. Official Preseason/Regular-Season Depth Charts (Relevant Snaps)

Compressed for the full 16-game slate. Expanded only for Strong labels, High confidence, or heavy rest. In any single game where personnel and script conflict, live snaps still decide the prop; script only grades the environment around those snaps.

Game 1 — Falcons at Packers (TNF, expanded: Jacobs DNP)

Packers: Jordan Love QB; RB committee of MarShawn Lloyd / Kaleb Johnson / Chris Brooks with Josh Jacobs expected DNP (Commissioner Exempt List); WR room without Jayden Reed if he remains Doubtful; TE Luke Musgrave already out. Snap window: Johnson earned first-team early-down work in Week 2 (8 carries) and is the main series-1 inheritor; Lloyd still in the mix; passing-down work to Brooks.

Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. expected to start (cleared); Tua Tagovailoa Limited/oblique and not expected to open; Cooper Rush emergency. Bijan Robinson RB1 expected; Brian Robinson ankle Limited. Snap window: Penix evaluation snaps all game if he holds up; Bijan bulk early downs.

Game 2 — Chargers at Bills (Strong / High)

Bills: Josh Allen QB; James Cook RB1; D.J. Moore Questionable (shoulder). Full starter snaps expected if Moore is active.

Chargers: Justin Herbert QB; committee RB; David Njoku Out; Charlie Kolar Out. Snap window: Herbert all game in a chase script; two-TE structure is broken.

Game 3 — Panthers at Browns

Browns: Deshaun Watson QB; Dylan Sampson Out. Wind is the secondary flag.

Panthers: Bryce Young QB; Jonathon Brooks Doubtful (groin). Young full snaps.

Game 4 — Jets at Lions

Lions: Jared Goff; Jahmyr Gibbs RB1; Isiah Pacheco Out. Gibbs bulk.

Jets: Geno Smith; Breece Hall RB1 expected.

Game 5 — Texans at Colts

Colts: Daniel Jones; Alec Pierce Out.

Texans: C.J. Stroud; Nico Collins Doubtful; Tank Dell Out. If Collins sits, Houston WR1 snaps shift to the remaining room.

Game 6 — Chiefs at Dolphins (Strong / High)

Dolphins: Malik Willis QB1; skill group thin (Caleb Douglas Q). Willis full snaps in a chase environment.

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes; Isiah Pacheco is in Detroit — Kansas City’s live RB is the current KC committee (Kenneth Walker featured in Week 2 box). Kelce expected. Snap window: Mahomes all game; late-game rush share expands if the -11 holds.

Game 7 — Titans at Giants (heavy rest at QB)

Giants: Jameis Winston expected (Jaxson Dart Expected DNP; surgery under consideration). Malik Nabers expected back from shoulder. Snap window: Winston all game; Haener only if elevated.

Titans: expected starters at QB/RB1. Low total, wind watch at MetLife.

Game 8 — Bengals at Steelers

Steelers: Aaron Rodgers; Jaylen Warren / Rico Dowdle (Dowdle Q toe).

Bengals: Joe Burrow; Chase Brown.

Game 9 — Seahawks at Commanders (heavy rest at QB)

Commanders: Marcus Mariota (Jayden Daniels Expected DNP, dislocated elbow, no timetable). Chigoziem Okonkwo: doubtful.

Seahawks: Drew Lock expected starter; Sam Darnold Unknown (ahead of schedule, Week 3 still a stretch). Zach Charbonnet Out; Jadarian Price Q. Snap window: Lock bulk unless Darnold is unexpectedly cleared; do not assign Darnold props.

Game 10 — Patriots at Jaguars

Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence; backfield live.

Patriots: Drake Maye; A.J. Brown listed out (ankle) in some reports — treat NE WR1 as Unknown/Out until the Wednesday report.

Game 11 — Cardinals at 49ers (Strong / High)

49ers: Brock Purdy; Christian McCaffrey; Mike Evans Q (hip) if he is on the 49ers 2026 roster as listed — confirm Wednesday. Purdy/CMC full snaps.

Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett; James Conner Out. Snap window: Brissett all game in a chase script; Cardinals RB1 snaps to the remaining committee.

Game 12 — Vikings at Buccaneers

Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield.

Vikings: Kyler Murray cleared and expected to start; Jordan Mason Out (thumb). Aaron Jones / remaining backs inherit Mason’s early-down share.

Game 13 — Ravens vs. Cowboys (Rio, neutral site)

Cowboys: Dak Prescott; Javonte Williams (Malik Davis IR). Travel Thursday, practice Friday in Rio. The field has been rain-stressed; the league says it's playable.

Ravens: Lamar Jackson; Derrick Henry; Zay Flowers Questionable. Snap window: both QBs full; Flowers is the only high-impact skill flag.

Game 14 — Raiders at Saints

Saints: Tyler Shough.

Raiders: Kirk Cousins; Brock Bowers Questionable but expected back after missing Week 2. Snap window: Bowers bulk if active; otherwise TE snaps scatter.

Game 15 — Rams at Broncos (SNF)

Broncos: Bo Nix; J.K. Dobbins Q, RJ Harvey Q, Marvin Mims Q.

Rams: Matthew Stafford; Puka Nacua Questionable (groin); Myles Garrett already out for an extended stretch on the defensive side. Snap window: if Nacua sits, Rams WR1 snaps move to the remaining room (Adams featured in Week 2).

Game 16 — Eagles at Bears (MNF, heavy rest / Unknown QB)

Bears: Caleb Williams Unknown (week-to-week hamstring); Tyson Bagent also Questionable (concussion); Case Keenum is the emergency. Do not lock any Chicago QB prop until Friday/Saturday.

Eagles: Jalen Hurts; Saquon Barkley Questionable (stinger, extra day); Dallas Goedert Out. Snap window: Hurts full; Barkley either bulk or a reduced early-down split; TE snaps without Goedert.

5. Script Impact on Player Props

A. Effects by script type

Strong / Mild Positive (control script)

RB: elevated carry volume, higher late-game share, more rushing-yard and rushing-TD equity; receiving work is stable-to-down.

QB: fewer dropbacks, more kneel/clock, rushing QBs still keep designed keepers but passing yards/attempts lean under.

WR/TE: target volume compresses, especially after the first two series; red-zone TDs remain possible, but the path is shorter.

Neutral

No systematic volume tilt. Use personnel, implied totals, and individual roles. Do not force a rush or pass lean.

Strong / Mild Negative (chase script)

RB: carry volume shrinks; receiving downs can still produce if the back is a checkdown option. Rushing-yard and rushing-TD props lean under.

QB: dropbacks and pass attempts rise; passing-yard and pass-TD overs gain environment; sack and INT risk also rise.

WR/TE: target volume expands; slot and TE checkdowns benefit first; deep shots increase only if the live QB can push the ball.

B. Decision Framework

Apply GSPI direction only to players confirmed or highly likely to play meaningful series. Discount any prop tied to a locked starter expected to rest. This week is SCRIPT-PRIMARY, but snap share still comes first whenever a starter is Expected DNP or Unknown — script does not create volume for a player who is not on the field. Prefer Strong labels only when Confidence is Medium or High. Weather is a secondary adjustment (Cleveland wind first; MetLife wind second; Rio field quality is a surface note, not a volume model). Do not treat Week 1–2 EPA as the live Falcons, Giants, Commanders, or Bears offense when the quarterback is changing.

C. Highest-Conviction Prop Angles for the week

1. James Cook, BUF, Strong Positive, bulk RB1 snaps with Allen live and a projected control script vs. the Chargers.

2. Patrick Mahomes, KC, Strong Positive, full QB snaps; passing volume may compress if the -11 holds, so prefer rushing/first-TD structures over raw pass attempts.

3. Christian McCaffrey, SF, Strong Positive, bulk RB snaps with Purdy live against Arizona.

4. Justin Herbert, LAC, Mild Negative, full QB snaps in a chase script; pass-attempt and passing-yard environment is up, Njoku Out concentrates remaining targets.

5. Malik Willis, MIA, Strong Negative, expected full QB snaps; pass volume up, efficiency and rushing-TD equity down against Kansas City.

6. Kaleb Johnson, GB, Mild Positive, early-down inheritor with Josh Jacobs expected DNP; not a locked 70% snap share, but series-1-and-2 work is the base.

7. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, Mild Positive, bulk RB snaps (Pacheco Out) in a home control script vs. the Jets.

8. Jameis Winston, NYG, Neutral, expected full snaps with Dart Expected DNP; do not fade passing volume just because the Giants are home favorites — the live unit is Winston.

9. Marcus Mariota, WAS, Mild Negative, expected full snaps with Daniels; expected DNP; chase passing environment vs. Seattle, low team total.

10. Brock Bowers, LV, Neutral, expected return to bulk TE snaps if active; script is not the driver — availability is.