Does early-season (Weeks 1–4) positional usage predict the next four weeks?

Short answer: moderately, with clear position differences. Team personnel tendencies (how many RBs/WRs/TEs they put on the field) are stickier than individual player roles.

Historical patterns from snap-share and usage research:

• Personnel structure is relatively stable. Teams that lean 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) early tend to stay there; teams that use more 12 or 21 personnel keep that lean unless injuries force a change. The scaled team numbers you just generated (RB/WR/TE on-field averages) therefore have decent carry-forward value for Weeks 5–8.

• Individual roles shift more. A player’s snap share can jump or collapse because of injury, performance, or scheme tweaks. Research on usage risers shows that roughly 72% of a snap-share gain is retained the following week, but the effect decays over a multi-week window, especially at RB.

• Position differences in persistence:

• • QB: Extremely sticky once the starter is set.

  • WR / TE: Moderate persistence. Every-down roles earned in the first month usually hold unless the player ahead returns or a clear demotion occurs.

  • RB: Weakest. Committees and game-script sensitivity make early RB usage the least reliable forward signal. Multi-week, multi-back usage is more informative than a single-back spike.

Practical takeaway for your cards: the team-level scaled scores (especially WR and TE) are useful priors for the next four weeks. 

High-scale teams will likely keep more of that position on the field. Low-scale teams are likely to stay low. Individual player snaps inside those teams will still move with injuries and depth-chart changes, so pair the team card with the player-level W1–2 vs W3–4 deltas from the earlier deck.

No full multi-year regression was run here (public longitudinal team-personnel datasets are limited), but the directional evidence from snap-share persistence studies and personnel-grouping tracking supports treating the Weeks 1–4 team scales as a moderate positive signal for Weeks 5–8, strongest at WR/TE and weakest at RB.

Running Back

Top 6

Rank

Team

On-field

Scale

1

SF

1.47

100

2

NYG

1.44

95

3

LAC

1.41

88

4

SEA

1.29

63

5

NE

1.25

54

6

CLE

1.16

37

Bottom 6

Rank

Team

On-field

Scale

27

CAR

1.00

3

28

BAL

1.00

3

29

LAR

1.00

2

30

WAS

0.99

1

31

JAX

0.99

1

32

BUF

0.99

0

===============================================================

Wide Receiver

Top 6

Rank

Team

On-field

Scale

1

PHI

2.73

100

2

TEN

2.72

99

3

TB

2.71

98

4

DAL

2.67

92

5

NO

2.65

90

6

WAS

2.59

83

Bottom 6

Rank

Team

On-field

Scale

27

BAL

2.22

36

28

BUF

2.22

35

29

SF

2.20

34

30

SEA

2.20

33

31

NYG

2.16

28

32

LV

1.94

0

=================================================================

Tight End

Top 6

Rank

Team

On-field

Scale

1

LV

1.95

100

2

BUF

1.79

81

3

BAL

1.74

76

4

CHI

1.74

75

5

LAR

1.70

71

6

ATL

1.57

56

Bottom 6

Rank

Team

On-field

Scale

27

DAL

1.24

18

28

PHI

1.23

17

29

TB

1.21

14

30

NE

1.19

12

31

LAC

1.13

5

32

MIA

1.08

0

Highest RB usage (SF, NYG, LAC) pairs with lower WR usage. 

Highest WR usage (PHI, TEN, TB, DAL) pairs with lower TE usage. 

LV is the extreme TE team and the lowest WR team.