Week 7 Targets Report 

NFL Team vs. Position Targets — Median & SD (Weeks 1–6) is ready.

The analysis calculates weekly team-position target totals (sum of all players at that position for each team each week), then computes the median and standard deviation of those weekly totals across the six weeks.

What’s included:

• Title slide

• Separate tables for WR, TE, and RB (sorted by median)

• Columns: Team | Median | SD | Mean | Total | Weeks

• SD color-coded (higher volatility in red, lower in green)

• Summary slide with overall position-level medians and SDs plus interpretation notes

Key takeaways from the data:

• WR environments show the highest typical volume (median ~18) but also higher volatility.

• TE medians cluster around 7; a few teams (LV, ARI, NYG) stand out as higher-volume.

• RB weekly totals are lower and generally more consistent (lower SD).

Week 7 props aligned with the target data (high/rising volume from the Weeks 1–6 file). Lines move, so shop; these are opportunities based on target opportunity + current market numbers as of Oct 23.

Strongest alignments with target volume

Malik Nabers (NYG @ HOU) — Clear rising role

• Targets: 9-4-6-7-20-15 (6-wk avg 10.2; recent avg ~14)

• Receptions line: 5.5 (over roughly -120 to -130 range)

• Receiving yards: ~68.5

• Season avg: ~6.8 rec / 82 yds on ~10 targets. Recent games (20 and 15 targets) show the role has expanded. Houston allows volume to WRs. Over 5.5 receptions looks well-supported by the target data; yards over is also reasonable if the game script cooperates.

Trey McBride (ARI vs DEN) — Elite sustained volume

• Targets: 13-10-11-12-10-9 (6-wk avg 10.8; very consistent)

• Receptions: 7.5 (over around +105 to +116)

• Receiving yards: ~63.5–66.5

• He’s been a high-floor TE1 all year (avg ~8.2 rec). The 7.5 line is high but matches his usage; over is playable if you believe the volume holds against Denver. Anytime TD also has interest given red-zone role.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs KC) — High-volume WR1

• Targets: 11-11-14-6-8-16 (6-wk avg 11.0)

• Receptions: 6.5 (over typically -140 to -150)

• Receiving yards: ~89.5–91.5

• He’s leading the league in receiving production with elite target rates. Over 6.5 is the market consensus; the number is fair-to-slightly-tight given the recent 16-target game, but the floor is high.

Isaiah Likely (NYG @ HOU) — Strong recent TE volume

• Targets have been solid (especially later weeks); 6-wk avg competitive among TEs

• Receptions: 5.5

• Receiving yards: ~47.5–49.5

• Rising role in the Giants offense alongside Nabers. Over 5.5 has been discussed as a value spot relative to his recent usage.

Other notes from the data + market

• CeeDee Lamb (DAL @ PHI): High overall volume (6-wk avg ~11.5) with a recent spike. Receptions often sit around 6.5–7.5. Solid floor, but the Eagles matchup and any injury residual can tighten the number.

• Brock Bowers (LV vs LAR): High-volume TE when healthy. Receptions ~6.5, yards ~70.5. Check status (hamstring/calf concerns earlier in the week). Volume supports overs if he plays full snaps.

• Puka Nacua (LAR @ LV): Explosive recent targets (including a 24-target game). Lines are high (receptions ~7.5–8.5, yards ~97–99). Calf status is a monitor — if limited, the number is dangerous; if full go, the target upside is real.

Quick framework from the target file

Players with 6-week averages ≥9–10 targets or clear positive recent deltas (W4–6 vs W1–3) are the ones where reception props in the 5.5–7.5 range tend to have the most support. The market is generally pricing the top names tightly; the edges (if any) are usually in the mid-tier rising roles or when a line lags a recent usage jump (Nabers is the clearest recent example).

Caveats: Injury news (especially Puka), game script, and weather can shift everything. These are not guaranteed; they are spots where the target data and current lines appear reasonably aligned or where volume may be underpriced relative to recent trends. Always confirm current odds and injury reports before betting.