Leaders of the Pack After Week 7

by Dennis Michelsen

Total Fantasy Football points and even Points per Game can be deceiving. In Fantasy Football, we want to know not only who the hot players are early in the season, but also who has been productive over a longer period. My rankings utilize four separate indexes that are explained below to give a rating for each player. Let’s look at who the leaders of the pack are in Fantasy Football after week seven. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, a player’s statistics can have three possible outcomes. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose with a very low-scoring week. They can keep your team in contention by performing above the historic median of expected output. The MVP Index aimed to combine these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. 

MVP26 Explained

This index uses the same formula as the MVP Index above but uses only this season's data. All games played are used to give a true value to each player as if they started them for every game this year in Fantasy Football. 

Upside Index Explained

While consistency matters in Fantasy Football, weekly upside consistency matters even more. The UPSIDE INDEX calculates a player’s best 1/3rd of his games over the past 2 seasons plus the current season. This extended database gives us a better sense of a player’s long-term form, not just a few data points from the current season. Each week, the data weights the current season more heavily. 

GOOD Index Explained

Often in the NFL, a young player struggles early in their career. While the MVP Index does a solid job of keeping up with players' latest developments, the GOOD Index counts only their best games over the past 2 seasons plus the current season. This index values rookie and second-year players lower because they have fewer total games to post a high GOOD Index, but it rewards players who stay healthy and productive over a longer time frame. 

Scoring System Used

The system uses regular 1-point-per-reception scoring, with no TE premium. Players get 1 point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards and 1 point for every 25 passing yards. TDs count 6 points for rushing and 4 points for passing TDs.

Leaders of the Pack at QB

15 Point Games Week One: 15

25+ Point Games Week One: 4

MVP26>120: 3 (Median 4)

MVP26>100: 11 (Median 6.5)

MVP26>80: 16 (Median 11.5)

MVP26>60: 20 (Median 16.5)

1. Josh Allen: Still QB1 in Fantasy Football, but has his gap to QB6 shrunk? 

2. Joe Burrow: Bengals’ defense and running game have been challenged so far 

3. Jared Goff: His “Bad Days” are still pretty good  

4. Lamar Jackson: Should return from injury this week  

5. Brock Purdy: Bye week came just in time with all their WRs banged up

6. Drake Maye (+2) Up 12 spots in just 3 weeks

7. Jayden Daniels: If he can stay healthy, he could be a league winner

8. Matthew Stafford (+1): 5 solid games in first 7 weeks

9. Patrick Mahomes (-3): Needs to shake off bad effort last week

10. Dak Prescott (+3): When the team can establish the run, he can be deadly in play action

11. Caleb Williams (+1): The Ice Man gets his toughest test of the season this week on MNF

12. Trevor Lawrence (-2) Was hot before the Bye week

13. Bo Nix (NEW) Just when we doubted him, he has a big game

14. Baker Mayfield (-3) Left hand is bothering him 

15. Jordan Love (NEW) Solid Fantasy Football season so far

Leaders of the Pack at RB

10 Point Games Week One: 30

20+ Point Games Week One: 9

Perfect MVP26 Scores After 7 Weeks: 1 

MVP26>120: 10 (Median 4.5)

MVP26>100: 16 (Median 12.5) 

MVP26>80: 16 (Median 19.5)

MVP26>60: 20 (Median 29)

1. Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 15 PPR points in every game this season 

2. Bijan Robinson: Offense is improved with Penix back at QB

3. Christian McCaffrey: Only injuries can slow him down

4. Jonathan Taylor: Week two of the trade rumor mill for JT

5. Josh Jacobs (NEW) Returned from the Exempt List in solid form

6. Derrick Henry (-1) Back-to-back bad games without Lamar at QB

7. James Cook (-1) Five of his six games over 15 PPR points

8. Kylen Williams (-1) Still productive despite the 50/50 volume split

9. Ken Walker (-1) Apparently even being in the stadium with Charbonnet drops his FF point total

10. Chase Brown (-1) Lost TD chances to Perine but gets a favorable schedule in the second half of the season

11. Bucky Irving (+1) Natural sponsor tie-in with Buc-ee's; this Bucky as tasty as their brisket 

12. D’Andre Swift (-2) Gets a tough test this week against SEA

13. Ashton Jeanty (+1) This offense will be dangerous when they add a top WR

14. Javonte Williams (-1) Only one game under 13 PPR points all season

15. Chubba Hubbard (-4) Bryce looked bad last week, and it hurt Chubba’s numbers too

16. Saquon Barkley (-1) Hamstring injury has him showing his age

17. Breece Hall (-1) Needs to come back before he loses his job

18. Alvin Kamara: Older man has looked young again

19. RJ Harvey (-2) Stuck in 3-way RB volume split 

20. Jaylen Warren (+1) Dowdle back caps his weekly upside

21. Rhamondre Stevenson (+3) Appears to be the lead RB every week now

22. Cam Skattebo: Injury to Tracy might open door for more volume after Bye week

23. David Montgomery (-3) Looked bad before the injury

24. Aaron Jones (-5) Mason back caps his FF value

25. Bhayshul Tuten (-2) Could climb as high as the Top 10 in this dynamic offense

26. Quinshon Judkins (+3) Two games over 20 PPR points and 4 games under 10

27. Emmanuel Wilson (-2) Showed K9 and the fans that he can get the job done

28. Rico Dowdle (-2) Volume split in PIT makes him less valuable

29. Tony Pollard (+1) Three TD Day for the average RB on a below-average offense

30. Kyle Monangai (-2) Bears offense needs his physical running back this week

31. Jordan Mason (NEW) Came back from injury in solid form but needs more volume

32. Rachaad White (-5) Might finally get 3-down usage after the Bye week

33. Ollie Gordon (-1) Doing his best Tony Pollard imitation 

34. Omarion Hampton (-3) In volume split hell thanks to McDaniel and Harbaugh 

35. JK Dobbins (-2) Might lose volume going forward

36. 
    

Leaders of the Pack at WR

10 Point Games Week One: 27

20+ Point Games Week One: 12

MVP26>120: 6 (Median 4.5)

MVP26>100: 14 (Median 10.5)

MVP26>80: 19 (Median 21.5)

MVP26>60: 28 (Median 31)

1. Puka Nacua: Imagine what he could do if he were healthy?    

2. Jaxson Smith Njigba: Auditioning for role as “Best WR on the Planet” 

3. Amon Ra St Brown: Hopefully his late-game injury is no big deal    

4. Ja’Marr Chase: Holds off Lamb for one more week  

5. Cee Dee Lamb: Big tier drop to WR6 

6. Zay Flowers (+3) MVP26 of 150 is 4th best so far this season

7. Malik Nabers: Nice chemistry with the new QB

8. Nico Collins (-2) Horrible game drops him 2 spots this week

9. Chris Olave (+1) Heads to the Bye week solidly in Top 10

10. Drake London (+1) MVP26 of only 86 right now

11. Tee Higgins (+4) Best WR2 in the league

12. Mike Evans: Needs to come back healthy after his Bye this week

13. George Pickens (+1): Would be happier as the lead WR on a bad team

14. Justin Jefferson (-1): Imagine how good he would be with a top QB

15. DeVonta Smith (+2): Eagles offense needs him back ASAP

16. Garret Wilson: The rookie could drop him in the pecking order

17. Jameson Williams (+4) Big tier drop to WR18

18. DJ Moore: Bills offense needs the healthy version of DJ back ASAP

19. Stefon Diggs (+1) Bye week came at the right time

20. AJ Brown (-1) Hopefully he is just playing his way back into shape

21. Christian Watson (+3) Nice 1-2 punch with Golden this season

22. Omar Cooper (NEW) Back-to-back 22-point games have him just outside the Top 20

23. Rashee Rice (+2) Chiefs offense needs him back healthy now

24. DK Metcalf (-1) Dynamic playmaker stuck in the wrong offense for his talents

25. Terry McLaurin (+1) Might miss a few more games

26. Tetairoa McMillan (-4) His QB returned to his old form last week

27. Parker Washington: Could climb into the Top 20 by the end of the season

28. Luther Burden (+12) Becoming the Ice Man’s favorite WR target

29. Ladd McConkey (+2) Hopes that his OC and Coach got smarter on the Bye week

30. Jakobi Meyers: The second-best WR on his team right now

31. Deebo Samuel (+1) Team needs the healthy Deebo back after the Bye

32. Mike Wilson (+1) Has been lousy since the Harrison trade

33. Wan Dale Robinson (-5) Losing volume to the rookie 

34. Matthew Golden (-5) 12 targets last week but lackluster results

35. Khalil Shakir (-1) Very inconsistent this season

36. Emeka Egbuka: Team made a wise decision to let him have a week off to get healthier 

37. Keenan Allen (+1) Victim of bad QB play this season

38. Courtland Sutton (-3) Volume split leading to lousy performances

39. Brian Thomas (-2) Needs a trade desperately 

40. Jaylen Waddle (-1) Has been very disappointing after the trade

41. 
    

Leaders of the Pack at TE

10 Point Games Week One: 15

20+ Point Games Week One: 2

MVP26>120: 2 (Median 1)

MVP26>100: 3 (Median 1.5)

MVP26>80: 3 (Median 2.5)

MVP26>60: 4 (Median 4)

1. Trey McBride: One point from a perfect score among the 4 indexes used for this ranking 

2. Brock Bowers: Highest MVP26 of any TE so far 

3. George Kittle: Big tier drop to TE4 

4. Travis Kelce: Even larger tier drop to TE5 

5. Dallas Goedert: Bad QB play could hurt him the rest of the season  

6. Sam LaPorta: Lots of competition for volume with the Lions  

7. Tyler Warren: Injury is a big concern  

8. Hunter Henry (+3): Injury to Doubs did help his volume as expected

9. Tucker Kraft (+1): Played his way into top form

10. Kyle Pitts (+4): Three games in a row with double-digit PPR points is a sign of the apocalypse 

11. Harold Fannin (-3) MVP25 of only 29 right now

12. Juwan Johnson (-3): Three lousy games in a row is a concern

13. Mike Gesicki (+2) Feasting in the Red Zone

14. Coleston Loveland (NEW) Back-to-back games over 18 PPR points

15. Pat Freirmuth (-3) Two games over 15 PPR Points but 3 games of 5 or fewer points

Conclusion   

Seven weeks are in the books, and we are starting to see what this season has in store for scoring at each position. The number of elite players (MVP26>100) is over the six-year median at each position, but the secondary starters (MVP26>60) are well below median at RB and WR after seven weeks of play. That will lead to some tougher-than-normal decisions during Bye weeks as the injuries continue to mount. Trey McBride is having another fantastic season. If you ranked him against all WRs this season, he'd be WR4 while still being TE-eligible in your lineups. If this trend continues, he could be the season's most valuable fantasy football asset.

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week.