TBI Index Week 8

The short-number filter is up +6.1% ROI in the backtest. Betting the TBI side on every spread of 3.5 or less returned 20-16 (+2.18 units) across Weeks 3–7, at -110 against closing lines. Week 2 is left out because each team had only one game behind its rating.

Filter    Record   Units   ROI

All games

30-28-3

-0.73

-1.3%

Short number (≤3.5)

20-16

+2.18

+6.1%

Short, edge ≥ 2

16-12

+2.55

+9.1%

Short, edge ≥ 5

12-9

+1.91

+9.1%

Spreads above 3.5

10-12-3

-2.91

-13.2%

So the filter is doing what you'd hope: it beats the full card, and the bigger spreads are where the losses are. But 36 bets aren't enough to prove a real edge. A 55.6% win rate has about an 8-point margin either way, so it could still be break-even. Raising the cutoff to an edge of 3 or more drops it to 12-12, which also looks like noise rather than a pattern.

Week by week, the short numbers went 5-3, 6-3, and 6-4 in Weeks 3–5. Then they slipped to 3-5 in Week 6, and Week 7 is 0-1 so far after Thursday. Starting Wednesday, I'll add this running record to each weekly deck.

Best plays on the six bigger spreads are LAR -6.5, DAL -6.5, CIN -10.5, JAX -9.5, PHI +5.5, and NE -7.

Last week against the lines you were given, the leans went 2-5-1: wins on PIT and CLE, a push on DET, and losses on SF, KC, CAR, LV and BAL. Against closing lines, it was 2-6, because DET closed at -3.5.

Before kickoff, check BUF, PIT, and DET at -3.5, since some books have them at -3. HOU, NO, NYG, and SF are on bye. Clocks go back Sunday, so Sunday kickoffs and later are in EST.

Your Week 8 TBI cards are attached: 17 slides with a title, 14 game cards, a Week 7 grading slide, and a closing slide with the leans and records. Last week's short-number leans went 2-5-1, which is also the season record so far. Week 7 was the first live week. Ratings run through all of Week 7, Monday night included. Lines are the median of 9 books, opening line excluded, pulled at 6:06 AM ET today.

Week 8 short-number leans, ranked by edge:

| # | Game | Kickoff ET | Lean | TBI line | Edge |

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| 1 | MIN @ DET | Sun 1:00 PM | MIN +3.5 | MIN -3.8 | 7.3 |

| 2 | KC @ DEN | Sun 4:25 PM |   KC -1.5 |    KC -4.7 |    3.2 |

| 3 | BAL @ BUF | Sun 1:00 PM | BUF -3.5 | BUF -5.5 |  2.1 |

| 4 | CLE @ PIT | Sun 1:00 PM |   PIT -3.5 |   PIT -5.5 |   2.0 |

| 5 | CAR @ GB | Thu 8:15 PM |  CAR +3.5 | GB -2.5 |   1.0 |

| 6 | ATL @ TB | Sun 1:00 PM |   TB -2.5 |     TB -3.4 |   0.9 |

| 7 | CHI @ SEA | Mon 8:15 PM | CHI +3 |    SEA -2.4 |  0.6 |

| 8 | LV @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 PM |     NYJ -1.5 |  NYJ -1.6 |  0.1 |

Best plays on the six bigger spreads are LAR -6.5, DAL -6.5, CIN -10.5, JAX -9.5, PHI +5.5, and NE -7.

Last week against the lines you were given, the leans went 2-5-1: wins on PIT and CLE, a push on DET, and losses on SF, KC, CAR, LV, and BAL. Against closing lines, it was 2-6, because DET closed at -3.5.

Before kickoff, check BUF, PIT, and DET at -3.5, since some books have them at -3. HOU, NO, NYG, and SF are on bye. Clocks go back Sunday, so Sunday kickoffs and later are in EST.