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Deeper Hygiene Scorecard: Top TEs & QBs (Early 2026 FFPC/Best-Ball ADP Context)
Deeper Hygiene Scorecard: Top TEs & QBs (Early 2026 FFPC/Best-Ball ADP Context)
Tight ends and quarterbacks are lower-volume positions with distinct noise profiles. TE has a sharp drop-off after the top tier (a huge advantage for the elite few in premium formats like FFPC 1.5 PPR TE scoring).
TE Hygiene Scorecard Table (Top 12 Detailed; 13–20 Summarized)
TE13–20 (e.g., Juwan Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Cade Otton, T.J. Hockenson, Isaiah Likely, etc.): Posterior mostly 130–180 pts. Common pre-mortems: committee targets, QB issues, or injury recurrence. These are late-round/waiver targets with boom potential but high noise.
Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights
Brock Bowers / Trey McBride: Pre-mortem — New OC/QB reduces target monopoly or injuries hit. Posterior stays high due to youth + proven production.
Older TEs (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews): Pre-mortem — Father Time + mileage leads to missed games/role shrinkage. Update priors downward aggressively.
Slow-Draft Strategy:
TE: Grab one elite early (round 3-4 in premium formats) or stream 3+ late. Hygiene prevents overpaying for the drop-off tier.
TE: Elite early or stream 3+ late (FFPC TE-premium favors volume). Avoid the noisy middle.
Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights (TE Streaming Tier):
Hockenson / Henry / Ferguson: Pre-mortem — Recurring injuries or age reduce snaps; target share shrinks with WR additions. Bayesian: Temper priors heavily on health evidence.
Freiermuth / Otton: Pre-mortem — Offense funnels elsewhere or QB play regresses. Strong floor priors keep them viable late.
Likely / Johnson: Pre-mortem — Stay in backup/TD-dependent role with no breakout. Update posteriors aggressively on camp usage.
This fits your Noise + Silver hygiene framework perfectly—decompose, pre-mortem risks, and update posteriors as news flows.
QB in 1QB leagues rewards waiting (massive depth), but rushing QBs dominate upside. Slow drafts let you Bayesian-update on QB situations and TE target shares.
QB Hygiene Scorecard Tables
QB Hygiene Scorecard Tables
Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights
Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights
Later QBs (Bryce Young, Cam Ward, etc.): High variance; Bayesian updates on landing spots critical.
Josh Allen / Mobile QBs: Pre-mortem — Sack-heavy style leads to injury or efficiency regression. Rushing floor buffers noise.
Pocket QBs: Pre-mortem — Poor OL/weapons or coaching changes tank production. Slower Bayesian updates needed on camp evidence.
QB play, age, and injury. Hygiene (decomposition + pre-mortems + Bayesian updates) is crucial here to avoid overpaying for boom/bust profiles.
Slow-Draft Strategy:
Slow-Draft Strategy:
QB: In 1QB, wait until late (value abundant). In Superflex, prioritize top rushing upside.
Slow drafts let you monitor camp/OTAs for evidence adjustments.
Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights (QB Mid-Tier):
Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights (QB Mid-Tier):
Mahomes / Prescott: Pre-mortem — Age or supporting cast decline leads to lower efficiency. Update priors downward on any negative camp news.
Williams / Murray: Pre-mortem — Adjustment issues or injury-prone style cap production.
Bayesian: Weight rushing/athleticism evidence heavily.
Stroud / Mayfield: Pre-mortem — Weapons/OL regression tanks output. Stronger priors make them safer late picks.
QB (1QB): Wait until rounds 10+ — massive depth. Hygiene prevents reaching the name value.
Superflex: Prioritize top rushing QBs much earlier.
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