Key Outcomes

• Process over outcome is the central theme: John and Dennis emphasize using a consistent, data-driven approach (diaries, metrics, and game boards) rather than reacting to luck or single-game results. 12

• Roster management for Week 7 focused on low-expectation flex plays, hedging Monday Night Football risks, and leveraging high-efficiency players like DeAndre Swift and Hunter Henry. 34

• Game-specific leans were set for entertainment: Steelers over Saints, Rams over Raiders, and Chiefs over Seahawks, with specific under/over and prop-betting insights. 567

• 
  

Decisions Made

• Decision: Use a "better than zero" approach for running backs by drafting high volume and handcuffing studs (e.g., Emmett Johnson with Ken Walker, Ray Davis with James Cook). 8

• Decision: Avoid high-risk/high-price players when the process suggests better value elsewhere; Dennis avoided Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Jonathan Taylor due to price and risk profile. 910

• Decision: Prioritize top-tier wide receivers early in the draft, specifically targeting JSN and the Sun God as primary options. 11

• Decision: For the Dynasty team, I swapped in Hockenson for Devonta Smith because Smith was unlikely to play and Hockenson offered a safer floor. 1213

• Decision: Damien Pierce was dropped in favor of Mumpfield as a backup plan for wide receiver depth. 1415

• 
  

Metrics & Findings

• Flex 2 Expectations: In FFPC, a second flex player is typically expected to provide 5–6 points; 8–10 points is a good day, and 20+ is an outlier. 1617

• Must-Start Threshold: A "slam dunk" starter like DeAndre Swift is expected to provide at least 15 points. 3

• Pittsburgh vs. New Orleans: Pittsburgh is 40% less efficient on the road, while New Orleans is the second-most efficient team and 95% efficient in the red zone. 1819

• Rams vs. Raiders: The Rams are 15% less efficient at home, and the Raiders are 14% less efficient at home; both teams are strong in the red zone, but wide receivers get little red-zone love. 20

• Chiefs vs. Seahawks: The Chiefs are 19% better away, while Seattle is 21% better at home. 21

• Cleveland vs. Tennessee: Tennessee is 26% less efficient at home; Cleveland's defense is rated 92, while Tennessee's is 86. 2223

• Miami vs. Jets: Miami has the league's worst offense by efficiency (32), while the Jets' defense is rated 100. 2425

Risks & Blockers

• Injury Risk: Puka Nacua, Devonta Smith, and Breece Hall are questionable, creating lineup uncertainty. 252627

• Coaching Risk: Both Harbaughs are viewed as prone to committee-based running back rotations, making it difficult to trust a single RB for consistent volume. 2829

• Weather Risk: Rain is forecast for the Pittsburgh/New Orleans game, which may impact offensive production. 30

• Roster Depth: The Dynasty team is thin at wide receiver with Egbuka and Smith both facing potential absences. 31

Open Questions

• Breece Hall's Volume: It is unclear if Hall will return to full volume immediately or be limited in his first game back. 25

• Puka Nacua's Status: His availability will significantly shift Mumpfield's and Higbee's value. 32

• Chiefs/Seahawks Scoring: While the over/under is 42.5, it's unclear whether both defenses will keep the game under that total. 33

Action Items

• All Users: Start a fantasy diary (voice memos or text) to track the decision-making process and review it in the off-season. 3435

• All Users: Review draft boards to distinguish between bad process and bad luck (e.g., injury-plagued teams). 1

• Dennis: Continue monitoring Devonta Smith and Saquon Barkley for Monday Night Football pivots. 36

• John: Consider a coaching index to track how often coaches rotate running backs and deviate from "stud" usage. 29