Target Week 8 Report

1. Positional / Player Listing
   Weekly targets (W1–W7), 7-week average, and momentum delta
   (Δ = average of W5–W7 minus average of W1–W3)
   Top 25 WR / TE / RB by volume, with green/red delta highlighting.

2. Team Target Cards
   One slide per team, players sorted high-to-low by 7-week average,
   team-color headers, same weekly numbers + delta.

3. Team vs Position Median & SD
   Weekly team-position target totals for all 7 weeks,
   plus median and standard deviation (volatility measure) for WR, TE, and RB.

Notes on methodology

• Missing weeks treated as 0.

• Targets are pure opportunity volume (no reception/yardage/TD data in the extract, so no true PPR-per-target).

• Delta uses the most recent three weeks vs the first three weeks for a clean momentum signal.

• Only players with ≥1.0 average targets included.

Vegas props that line up with the target volume (Week 8)

Target volume is the strongest floor input for receptions props. These stand out:

Player

Position

Target Profile

Prop Lean

Why it fits

Trey McBride (ARI)

TE

Consistently elite (often 10–13 TGTs; 13 in W7). ARI TE median is the league’s highest.

Over 7.5 receptions (consensus ~-120). Yards line ~73 is also reasonable.

Season reception average ~8.4; SportsLine projects ~9.6. He has cleared 7+ in every game. DAL matchup is not a TE fortress.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)

WR

Alpha volume (frequently 11–16 TGTs; 12 in W7).

Over 7.5 receptions and lean Over 99.5 yards.

Season average ~8.3 rec / ~124 yds. Multiple models (FIC, EV Analytics) project ~8+ rec and 12+ targets vs CHI on MNF.

Puka Nacua (LAR)

WR

High-end target share.

Over 7.5 receptions / Over ~92.5 yards.

Volume has stayed strong; line is in line with recent production.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

WR

12 targets in W7; still the clear alpha.

Over 6.5 receptions / lean Over ~82.5 yards vs ARI.

Recent spike plus home script against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed volume.

Brock Bowers (LV)

TE

High TE target rate when healthy.

Over ~6 receptions / Over ~69.5 yards at NYJ.

Similar “volume floor” profile to McBride; Jets have been soft vs TEs.

Team-Position Weekly Target Totals — Median & SD (7 weeks)

These are the median and standard deviation of each team’s weekly target total at the position (sum of all players at that position that week).

Wide Receivers (sorted by median)

• DAL: 29.0 median / 6.16 SD

• GB: 25.0 / 6.04

• CAR: 22.5 / 3.63

• DET: 22.0 / 4.45

• WAS: 22.0 / 4.12

• HOU: 21.0 / 3.31

• TEN: 21.0 / 4.51

Tight Ends

• ARI: 15.0 median / 2.14 SD (most consistent high-volume TE environment)

• LV: 13.0 / 6.58

• NYG: 11.0 / 4.31

• LAR: 10.0 / 3.70

Running Backs

• LAC / NO / LAR / LV / SF: 8.0–9.0 median range

• DET: 7.5 / 1.64 (notably stable)

Recent target leaders (Weeks 5–7 average)

Players showing the strongest recent volume:

Player

Pos

Team

W5–7 Avg Targets

Malik Nabers

WR

NYG

14.7

DeVonta Smith

WR

PHI

14.0

Puka Nacua

WR

LAR

13.7

Emeka Egbuka

WR

TB

12.5

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

SEA

12.0

CeeDee Lamb

WR

DAL

11.7

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR

DET

11.0

Trey McBride

TE

ARI

10.7

Matthew Golden

WR

GB

10.7

Zay Flowers

WR

BAL

10.3

Prop implications from the full 1–7 sample

The earlier angles still hold and are reinforced by Week 7:

• Malik Nabers — Continued high recent volume (14.7 avg last three weeks). Receptions lines in the 5.5–6.5 range remain well-supported by the target data.

• Trey McBride — ARI’s TE target environment is the highest and most stable (15.0 median, low SD). His personal volume stays elite.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Still a high-floor WR1 with consistent double-digit targets.

• Puka Nacua — High recent volume (13.7), but monitor health; the target upside is real when he’s fully involved.

• Matthew Golden and Emeka Egbuka — Emerging recent volume spikes that may not yet be fully priced in reception props.

DAL remains the clearest high-volume WR environment (29.0 median), while ARI’s TE situation is the most reliable high-volume tight end spot.