Pre-mortems (“What could make these fail?”). Top 24  RBs

Pre-Mortems for Top 24 Running Backs by Early 2026 FFPC ADP PART 1

(Incorporating Noise / Kahneman pre-mortems: “What could make this player fail?” — structured failure modes to reduce overconfidence and decision noise in slow drafts.)

Pre-mortems force us to imagine the pick busting before drafting. This pairs perfectly with Bayesian updating (adjust priors downward on new evidence) and Noise hygiene (decompose risks independently). Slow drafts give time to run these on every top target.

Here’s the approximate early 2026 FFPC ADP order for top RBs (based on current high-stakes data from FFPC, FantasyPros, DraftSharks, etc.):

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
   Pre-mortem: Detroit shifts to a heavier run scheme or Montgomery stays healthy and takes 45%+ touches; Gibbs’ receiving role shrinks due to new OC/TE emphasis; soft-tissue injuries pile up from his explosive style. Result: RB2/3 instead of RB1 ceiling.

2. Bijan Robinson (ATL)
   Pre-mortem: Falcon's draft/sign another high-volume back or commit to committee; Robinson’s efficiency drops with poor OL play or conservative coaching; nagging ankle/shoulder issues limit him to 12–14 games. He becomes a high-floor RB2 but misses elite volume.

3. Christian McCaffrey (SF)
   Pre-mortem: Age + heavy historical workload catches up (recurring calf/Achilles issues); 49ers lean on younger backs in a pass-heavy offense post-Shanahan tweaks; missed games balloon due to durability. He finishes outside top-12 despite ADP.

4. Jonathan Taylor (IND)
   Pre-mortem: Colts offense regresses (QB play or OL injuries); new coaching staff reduces his workload; Taylor re-injures his ankle or back. Workhorse volume evaporates into a split backfield.

5. James Cook (BUF)
   Pre-mortem: Buffalo drafts a complementary power back or increases Allen’s designed runs; Cook’s receiving usage drops; efficiency tanks in a tougher schedule. He settles as a low-end RB1/high RB2.

6. De’Von Achane (MIA)
   Pre-mortem: Dolphins add a bruiser or Mostert-like vet; Achane’s small frame leads to frequent missed games or diminished early-down work; offense struggles with Tua health/OL. Boom weeks become rare.

7. Ashton Jeanty (LV) — Rookie
   Pre-mortem: Raiders’ offense is a mess (poor QB/OL); Jeanty lands in a committee or struggles with pro pass protection; classic rookie adjustment woes + inefficient scheme. Bust rate for top rookie RBs is historically high.

8. Saquon Barkley (PHI)
   Pre-mortem: Eagles OL injuries or scheme change limits his touches; age + mileage shows in workload management; recurring knee/ankle problems. He loses the every-down role.

9. Chase Brown (CIN)
   Pre-mortem: Bengals re-sign or draft a true lead back; Brown’s efficiency regresses without perfect blocking; injury history resurfaces in a high-volume role.

10. Jeremiyah Love (ARI) — High-upside rookie
    Pre-mortem: Arizona backfield committee (new additions); Love struggles with NFL size/speed or pass protection; Kyler’s mobility reduces designed runs. Hype outpaces production.

11. Kyren Williams (LAR)
    Pre-mortem: Rams add depth or revert to committee; Williams’ smaller frame leads to durability issues again; McVay scheme changes or OL regression.

12. Josh Jacobs (GB? or new team)
    Pre-mortem: New team/offense doesn’t feature him heavily; age decline accelerates; inefficient in zone scheme. Touches drop sharply.

13–24 range (common in current ADP): Bucky Irving (TB), Derrick Henry (BAL, age), Travis Etienne (if healthy), Rachaad White, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, etc., plus other rookies like TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins.

Common Pre-Mortem Themes Across the Group (Reducing Your Noise)

• Durability/Volume Regression (top risk for vets like CMC, Taylor, Barkley, Henry): Workload catches up → missed games or reduced snaps.

• Committee/Opportunity Loss: New coaching, draft additions, or scheme shifts split touches (huge for Gibbs, Achane, rookies).

• Offensive Line / Scheme Fit: Poor blocking or pass-heavy shift kills efficiency.

• Rookie Adjustment: High bust rate even for elite prospects (Jeanty/Love types).

• Injury Recurrence: Ankles, hamstrings, and soft tissue are the RB killer.

Hygiene Scorecard Tip: For each of these, fill the “Evidence & Likelihood” column with current camp/news, then run the pre-mortem. Only draft if posterior value still beats ADP after downside weighting.

This process lowers your personal decision variance dramatically — you’ll reach less on hype and pounce on falling values with eyes wide open.