Full Hygiene Scorecard Table + Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian-Adjusted Projections for Top ~24 RBs (Early 2026 FFPC ADP Context)

Using current early 2026 consensus ADP/rankings (FantasyPros, FFPC-influenced best-ball data, RotoBaller, etc.): Bijan Robinson & Jahmyr Gibbs are battling for 1.01/1.02 overall, followed by Taylor, CMC, Cook, etc. Rookies like Ashton Jeanty and Jeremiyah Love (ARI) are climbing fast.

I’ve applied the full Noise + Silver Hygiene Scorecard to the top group. For brevity, here’s a condensed version with key columns + deeper pre-mortems (failure scenarios) and Bayesian projections (PPR, 17-game basis; Prior = historical base rates for archetype; Posterior = updated with current evidence like landing spot, camp buzz, depth charts).

Hygiene Scorecard Summary Table (Top 12 Detailed; 13–24 Summarized)

13–24 Range (common in ADP: Bucky Irving TB, Derrick Henry BAL, Travis Etienne JAX, Rachaad White TB, David Montgomery DET, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, plus rookies like Jadarian Price SEA, TreVeyon Henderson, etc.):

• Posterior Projections: Mostly 180–240 pts with higher bust floors (25–40%).

• Common Pre-Mortems: Committee dilution (huge for Irving/White), age decline (Henry, Jones), scheme/OL regression, or rookie struggles.

• Hygiene Take: These have more noise—use slow draft time for deeper evidence updates.

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Deeper Pre-Mortems on Key Players

• Bijan Robinson: What if Atlanta’s offense regresses badly (QB play/OL injuries) and they cap his touches at 250? Or chronic lower-body nags turn him into a high-floor RB2 who never hits 300+ pts again.

• Jahmyr Gibbs: Detroit adds a bruiser or shifts to more balanced under new influences—Gibbs’ explosive weeks vanish, and he becomes a high-end RB2 with too many low-volume games.

• CMC: The classic “father time” pre-mortem—recurring soft-tissue issues limit him to 10–12 games; 49ers manage him into a timeshare and his efficiency craters.

• Rookies (Jeanty/Love): NFL speed/strength adjustment + poor team context (bad OL or QB) leads to inefficient usage, pass-pro struggles, and bust status (historical ~30–40% rate for early RBs).

• Achane/Explosive Types: Frame + workload leads to multiple missed games; offense funnels through Tua/WRs instead.

Bayesian Notes Across the Board

• Priors drawn from historical peer groups (e.g., young lead backs, rookies, aging elites).

• Updates tempered by current evidence (draft capital, coaching, early camp/depth charts as of late May 2026).

• Ranges emphasize uncertainty—Silver-style: draft the posterior distribution, not the mean.

This scorecard + pre-mortem process dramatically lowers decision variance in slow drafts. You’ll avoid over-drafting high-noise players (e.g., aging stars or unproven rookies at premium ADP) while capitalizing on falling values.

Deeper Hygiene Scorecard: RBs 13–24 (Early 2026 FFPC/Best-Ball ADP Context)Using current early 2026 best-ball/FFPC-influenced ADP (FantasyPros, DraftSharks, Underdog, etc., as of late May 2026), here is a detailed look at the next tier after the elite top 12. These are typically mid-to-late 2nd- to 4th/5th-round picks in high-stakes slow drafts.  draftsharks.com

This tier features more noise (higher variance across committees, ages, or situations) — perfect for slow-draft hygiene: decompose risks, run pre-mortems, and apply Bayesian updates.

Condensed Hygiene Scorecard Table (13–24)

Deeper Pre-Mortems & Bayesian Insights for 13–24

These players carry higher decision noise — slow drafts reward careful updating here.

• Bucky Irving: Pre-mortem — Tampa Bay reverts to White-heavy passing or adds depth; Irving’s efficiency regresses without perfect blocking. Bayesian: Prior strong young back → posterior tempered if camp shows split.

• Derrick Henry: Pre-mortem — Age 32 workload finally breaks him (missed games or efficiency crash in tougher matchups); Ravens lean younger. Classic father-time risk; update priors downward aggressively.

• Travis Etienne / Rachaad White: Pre-mortem — Backfield committee deepens or new OC reduces designed runs. Etienne loses passing work; White becomes TD-dependent. High occasion noise from usage battles.

• David Montgomery: Pre-mortem — Gibbs takes even more volume or Detroit drafts another piece; Monty’s age shows in a reduced goal-line role. Excellent insurance but not a standalone RB1.

• Veterans (Jones, Mixon, Swift, Harris, Robinson): Pre-mortem patterns — age/injury regression, OL/coaching changes, or committee dilution. Bayesian updates rely heavily on camp/depth chart evidence.

• Rookies (Henderson, Judkins, Price, etc.): Pre-mortem — NFL adjustment (pass pro, speed), poor offensive line/QB, or immediate committee. Historical bust rate ~30–40% for this range; strong priors needed.

Common Themes Reducing Variance:

• Opportunity Risk dominates (committees are the #1 killer).

• Durability for vets (injury columns score lower).

• Rookie Uncertainty — use outside-view base rates heavily.

Slow-Draft Edge: Revisit scorecards as OTAs/camp news drops. Aggregate multiple sources for the evidence column. Only draft if posterior value clearly beats ADP after pre-mortem downside weighting. This completes the full top-24 view. The 13–24 tier rewards disciplined hygiene — you’ll find more +EV values here than forcing elite reaches.