SCIENCE OF FANTASY FOOTBALL  •  2026 WEEK 3

Week 1–2 Touch Deltas: Who Actually Got the Ball — and Week 3 Action

Snaps measure presence. Touches measure involvement. This note uses rush + reception touches and PPR per touch from the Week 1–2 panel. Missing week = zero. STD/touch is ignored. Scoring context is PPR / TE premium.

Method. A touch is a carry or a reception, not a target. PPR/touch is efficiency on those events. Week 3 action should weight the new touch count first. 

Efficiency on fewer than four touches is noise.

League-level findings

• Several Week 1 workhorses were not workhorses. Stevenson 23→7. Montgomery 23→8. Mason 15→0. Gibbs 34→22. Allgeier 19→7. Saquon 16→5. Bijan 29→19. Those are role or health changes, not script noise.

• A second cohort took the job in one week. Emanuel Wilson 2→21. Henderson 0→16. Bigsby 0→15. Kamara 0→14. Jonah Coleman 0→13. Hampton 12→25. Jones 12→23. That is the W3 start list from the touch panel.

• Receiving efficiency and receiving volume are not the same thing. Lamb 6→8 touches at 2.57→4.41 PPR/touch. Adams 3→8 at 1.87→4.94. JSN 8→9 at 3.28→4.72. Chase 2→7 at 1.60→3.79. Those are usable. One-touch spikes are not.

• Pass-catcher touch counts stay small. A WR going 3→10 (DeVonta) is a real usage jump. A WR going 8→2 (Bourne) is a sit. Do not compare WR touch totals to RB touch totals on the same scale.

Week 3 priority board

Start/lean in: Henderson, Emanuel Wilson, Hampton, Aaron Jones (if Mason is out), Kamara, Jonah Coleman (if Harvey is out), Bigsby/Shipley, Taylor, Cook, Achane, Irving, CMC, Kelce (3→9), Schultz (4→12), DeVonta (3→10), Lamb, Adams, JSN, Chase, Bateman (0→7, 3.11 PPR/touch).

Sit/fade until touches print: Stevenson, Mason, Saquon, Goedert (4→0), Nico Collins (8→0), Nacua (5→0), Harvey (7→0), Kendre Miller (9→0), Wan’Dale (5→0), Keenan Allen (6→0), Nabers’ 6→0 touch line — confirm status before you sit a WR1 on one missing week.

Volume without the W1 spike: Jeanty 29→25 but 1.13→0.41 PPR/touch. Gibbs 34→22 still 1.06. Henry 25→19 and 1.41→0.93. Start the role; do not project the explosion.

How to use the touch panel in a W3 lineup

1. If a player’s touches moved by 8 or more, believe the new number until a third game prints.

2. Do not start a WR or TE on PPR/touch spikes with fewer than four touches.

3. RB volume beats RB efficiency when the touch count is 15+. Jeanty, Henry, Gibbs, Walker, Taylor stay starts even when PPR/touch falls.

4. When snaps rose and touches did not (Odunze, Kraft), wait one week. Route share without touches is a pending-break list, not a lock.

Team-by-team: touch highlight and Week 3 action

Arizona Cardinals

Allgeier 19→7. Love 13→12. McBride 9→8 at 2.72→2.26. Bourne 8→2. W3 action: Love is the Cardinals' RB to start. McBride is still the pass-game engine. Allgeier is a split-back, not a workhorse. Bourne is a sit.

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan 29→19 and 1.08→0.58. Brian Robinson 9→13. London 3→5. W3 action: Bijan is still the lead but no longer a 29-touch island. Robinson is a FLEX if the committee holds. London’s touch line is fine; it was never a volume monster.

Baltimore Ravens

Henry 25→19, 1.41→0.93. Bateman 0→7 at 3.11. Flowers disappeared from the touch file. W3 action: Henry remains an RB1 on 19 touches. Bateman is a WR2 if Flowers stays out. Do not pay Henry’s W1 efficiency.

Buffalo Bills

Cook 16→22 at 0.62→0.95. Coleman 0→6 at 2.05. Kincaid 5→7 at 3.21. Allen 6→14 rushing as a QB. W3 action: Cook is a smash. Kincaid is the TE-premium start. Coleman is the Bills WR add. Stream Allen if you need a floor QB.

Carolina Panthers

Hubbard 13→14 at 1.82→1.03. Coker 8→8 but 4.23→1.83. Waller 2→3 at 6.10. McMillan 5→5. W3 action: Hubbard holds. Fade Coker’s W1 efficiency. Waller is a TE-premium dart, not a locked TE1. McMillan is stable.

Chicago Bears

Swift 19→21 but 1.71→0.61. Monangai 12→12, 1.70→0.65. Odunze 2→3. W3 action: Swift is a volume RB2, not a 1.71 PPR/touch player. Monangai is a real committee mate. Odunze’s snap jump did not yet show up as a touch jump — wait one more week before paying WR2.

Cincinnati Bengals

Brown 21→23. Chase 2→7 at 1.60→3.79. Higgins 3→5 at 2.97→2.90. Perine 8→3. W3 action: Brown and Chase are the W3 starts. Higgins is a WR2. Perine is off the FLEX list.

Cleveland Browns

Judkins 14→17. Boston 2→5 at 4.10. Fannin 2→5 at 2.08. Concepcion 7→7. W3 action: Judkins is the RB. Boston/Fannin are the Browns to roster in TEP and deeper PPR. Jeudy did not clear the touch filter.

Dallas Cowboys

Javonte 17→15, 1.42→0.53. Lamb 6→8 at 2.57→4.41. Pickens 3→6. Ferguson 2→4 at 1.30→5.08. W3 action: Lamb is a smash. Javonte is volume only. Ferguson is the TE-premium start after the efficiency spike on a rising touch line.

Denver Broncos

Harvey 7→0. Coleman 0→13 at 1.14. Waddle 0→8 at 2.73. Dobbins 8→10. W3 action: If Harvey is out, Coleman is a must-add RB. Waddle is a WR2 on this touch print. Dobbins is the other half of the committee, not a fade.

Detroit Lions

Gibbs 34→22 still 1.06 PPR/touch. St. Brown 10→9 at 2.87→3.91. LaPorta 5→6 at 2.87. W3 action: Start the core three. Gibbs’ raw count fell off a 34-touch outlier; 22 at 1.06 is still an RB1.

Green Bay Packers

Lloyd 13→8. Kaleb Johnson 0→8. Watson 6→4 at 5.45→3.53. Kraft 3→2. Golden 6→4. W3 action: The Packers RB job is a split — neither is a locked starter. Watson remains the WR to start. Kraft’s snap monopoly is not a touch monopoly; he is a TE-premium start on route share, not on 2–3 touches.

Houston Texans

Montgomery 23→8. Marks 10→13. Schultz 4→12 at 2.17. Nico 8→0. W3 action: Marks over Montgomery until the split prints the other way. Schultz is a TE1 this week. If Collins is out, Houston WRs are committee streams, not WR1s.

Indianapolis Colts

Taylor 22→28 at 1.14→1.04. Warren 3→7 at 3.43→2.06. Downs 2→7. Allen 6→0. W3 action: Taylor is a league-winning volume RB. Warren is a TE-premium start. Downs is the Colts WR add. Allen is a sit.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tuten 16→15 at 0.61→0.95. Etienne is not here — Tuten is the Jags RB in this file. Parker Washington 5→7. Meyers did not clear a big touch print. W3 action: Start Tuten. Washington is a PPR stream. Do not force a Jags WR1.

Kansas City Chiefs

Walker 26→30 at 1.31→0.79. Kelce 3→9 at 3.37→2.79. Worthy 3→5. Rice 2→4. W3 action: Walker is a volume RB1; fade the 1.31. Kelce’s touch recovery is the TE-premium headline. Worthy/Rice are both viable; neither is a 10-touch WR.

Los Angeles Chargers

Hampton 12→25 at a stable 0.69→0.70. McConkey 5→3 at 3.84→2.17. Njoku 5→1. W3 action: Hampton is a locked RB2/flex heading to RB1 if this holds. McConkey is a talent hold whose touches shrank. Sit Njoku.

Los Angeles Rams

Nacua 5→0. Adams 3→8 at 1.87→4.94. Ferguson 0→6 at 2.90. Kyren 14→14 at 1.11→1.12. Corum 10→13. W3 action: If Nacua is out, Adams is a WR1. Kyren plus Corum is a real split — Kyren is still the start, Corum is rostered. Ferguson is a TE-premium stream.

Las Vegas Raiders

Jeanty 29→25, 1.13→0.41. Tucker 2→5 at 2.35→4.58. Mayer 6→3. W3 action: Start Jeanty on volume. Sit the 1.13 projection. Tucker is the Raiders WR to start. Mayer is a TE-premium fringe.

Miami Dolphins

Achane 15→23, 0.71→0.53. Washington 3→5. Douglas 5→2. W3 action: Achane is the only must-start Dolphin. The 23-touch print is the story; the efficiency dip is not.

Minnesota Vikings

Mason 15→0. Jones 12→23, 0.83→0.46. Jefferson 8→3 at 3.90→2.83. W3 action: Jones is the Vikings RB if Mason is out. Jefferson’s touch dip is a one-week flag, not a sit — 3.90→2.83 on fewer touches is still a WR1. Confirm Mason’s status before you start Jones everywhere.

New England Patriots

Henderson 0→16 at 0.85. Stevenson 23→7. Doubs 0→3 at 4.20. A.J. Brown is gone from the file. W3 action: This is the cleanest RB takeover in the touch panel. Start Henderson. Sit Stevenson. Doubs is the Patriots WR stream.

New Orleans Saints

Kamara 0→14 at 0.51. Etienne 16→10. Miller 9→0. Olave 10→8 at 2.82→2.83. Vele 7→5. W3 action: Kamara is back as the lead. Etienne is a committee mate. Olave holds. Miller is a sit.

New York Giants

Dart 11→0. Skattebo 18→16. Singletary 10→3. Nabers 6→0. Likely 8→5 at 3.48→1.66. W3 action: Skattebo is the RB. Confirm Nabers before you sit a WR1. Likely is a TE-premium stream, not a smash after the efficiency drop.

New York Jets

Hall 24→21. Isaiah Williams 0→7. Adonai Mitchell 3→6. G. Wilson 6→5 at 2.32→3.34. Allen 10→6. W3 action: Hall is the RB. Wilson is the WR1 on efficiency. The other Jets WRs are deep-league only.

Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon 16→5. Bigsby 0→15 at 0.79. Shipley 3→9. DeVonta 3→10 at a flat 2.77. Goedert 4→0. W3 action: Do not start Saquon or Goedert until they touch the ball again. Bigsby is the W3 Eagles RB. DeVonta is the safest Eagle. Start Mundt at TE only if Goedert stays down.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Warren 15→13. Dowdle 10→9. Metcalf 4→4. Bernard 0→4. Pittman off the touch sheet. W3 action: Warren is the lead back in a split, not a 20-touch RB1. Metcalf is the WR1. Bernard is a dart if Pittman is out.

Seattle Seahawks

Emanuel Wilson 2→21. Price 12→14. JSN 8→9 at 3.28→4.72. Holani 8→5. Kupp 2→2. W3 action: Wilson is the Seahawks RB to start. JSN is a WR1 on 9 high-efficiency touches. Kupp is a fade. Price is the handcuff/committee mate.

San Francisco 49ers

CMC 15→14 at 0.92→1.61. Black 15→7. Kittle 2→4 at 1.60→4.50. Samuel 7→4. Evans 6→3. W3 action: CMC is a smash. Kittle is a TE-premium start after the efficiency jump. Samuel/Evans are slipping. Black is not a separate RB1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Irving 15→21, 1.35→0.62. Gainwell 6→5. Otton 3→5. Godwin/Egbuka 5→4. W3 action: Irving tightened the job. Start him; do not pay 1.35 PPR/touch. The two WRs and Otton are stable mid-range plays.

Tennessee Titans

Pollard 8→15. Spears 5→9 at 0.88→1.00. Wan’Dale 5→0. Helm 4→2. W3 action: Pollard is the RB2. Spears is a viable FLEX in the committee. Sit Wan’Dale. Helm is not a TE-premium start on two touches.

Washington Commanders

Croskey-Merritt 17→13. White 9→13 at 0.52→1.10. Diggs 4→5 at 3.88→4.34. McLaurin 2→2. Daniels 5→7. W3 action: White is the Washington RB to start this week. Diggs over McLaurin on this touch/efficiency pair. Confirm the QB before streaming Commanders pass catchers.