Week 3 Games

Sun 1:00 | Chiefs at Dolphins

MIA +10.5 / 45.5 · Implied 17.50–28.00 · 18/82
Script: Miami Strong Negative / Kansas City Strong Positive · High · Neutral

Rush   Pass

MIA ×0.82 ×1.18

KC ×1.18 ×0.88

How it plays: Largest favorite on the remaining board. Headline Strong. If KC leads by two, Walker's late-game share rises and Mahomes attempts flatten. Willis stays in a full chase script. Blowout Watch already inside this game.

Personnel: Willis live. Achane RB1. Mahomes live. Walker featured. Kelce expected.

Prop lean: Mahomes KC Strong Positive, prefer rushing/first-TD over raw pass attempts if −10.5 holds. Willis MIA: Strong Negative; pass volume up, efficiency down. Achane MIA: checkdowns if trailing. Walker KC late-game rush if the number holds.

Sun 1:00 | Titans at Giants

NYG −2.5 / 38.5 · Implied 20.50–18.00 · 57/43
Script: N.Y. Giants Neutral / Tennessee Neutral · Low · Wind/Rain

Rush Pass

NYG ×1.00 ×1.00

TEN ×1.00 ×1.00

How it plays: Backup-QB home favorite, weather-compressed total. Do not fade Giants pass volume just because they are favored — the live unit is Winston. MetLife rain/wind is the limiter, not the label.

Personnel: Winston live. Dart Expected DNP (season-ending knee). Skattebo featured. Nabers expected. Ward live. Pollard and Spears both Q.

Prop lean: Winston NYG Neutral full snaps. Nabers routes if weather allows. Do not assume a Dart-era script. 

Sun 1:00 | Bengals at Steelers

PIT +3.5 / 42.5 · Implied 19.50–23.00 · 39/61
Script: Pittsburgh Mild Negative / Cincinnati Mild Positive · Medium · Neutral

   Rush Pass

PIT ×0.90 ×1.10

CIN ×1.10 ×0.94

How it plays: AFC North road favorite, 42.5 total. If Cincinnati leads, Brown's early-down attempts rise, and Burrow's attempts flatten. Rodgers pass volume expands if Pittsburgh trails.

Personnel: Rodgers live. Warren featured. Burrow live. Chase Brown RB1. Ja’Marr Chase WR1.

Prop lean: Chase Brown CIN Mild Positive early-down. Rodgers PIT Mild Negative pass-up. Ja’Marr Chase CIN target floor even if script compresses.

Sun 1:00 | Seahawks at Commanders

WAS +7.5 / 40.5 · Implied 16.50–24.00 · 25/75
Script: Washington Mild Negative / Seattle Mild Positive · Medium · Rain watch

Rush Pass

WAS ×0.90 ×1.10

SEA ×1.10 ×0.94

How it plays: Capped at Mild. Daniels out; Mariota is the live unit. Darnold is a full participant Thursday and trending to start, not yet named. Blowout Watch if Darnold is confirmed and Mariota leaks early. Low total.

Personnel: Mariota live. Daniels Out. Darnold expected, not named. Lock fallback. JSN expected. Price Q.

Prop lean: Mariota WAS Mild Negative full snaps; chase passing inside a low team total. JSN SEA Mild Positive WR1 whoever starts. Do not assign Darnold props until he is named.

Sun 1:00 | Chargers at Bills

BUF −7.0 / 50.5 · Implied 28.75–21.75 · 74/26
Script: Buffalo Strong Positive / L.A. Chargers Strong Negative · High · Neutral

Rush Pass

BUF ×1.18 ×0.88

LAC ×0.82 ×1.18

How it plays: High-total control spot. If Buffalo leads by two scores, Cook’s late-game share rises, and Allen’s attempts flatten. Herbert stays in a chase script with the two-TE room broken.

Personnel: Allen / Cook live. Moore Q (shoulder). Herbert live. Hampton featured. Njoku Out. Kolar Out.

Prop lean: Cook BUF Strong Positive bulk RB1. Herbert LAC Strong Negative pass-up. Allen BUF Strong Positive; prefer rushing/first-TD over raw attempts if the −7 holds.

Sun 1:00 | Jets at Lions

DET −6.5 / 48.5 · Implied 27.50–21.00 · 70/30
Script: Detroit Mild Positive / N.Y. Jets Mild Negative · Medium · Neutral

Rush Pass

DET ×1.10 ×0.94

NYJ ×0.90 ×1.10

How it plays: Home favorite in a 48.5 total. If Detroit grabs a one-score lead, Gibbs early-down work rises, and Goff attempts flatten. Jets' path is Geno throwing to keep pace.

Personnel: Goff / Gibbs live. Geno / Hall live.

Prop lean: Gibbs DET Mild Positive bulk RB. Hall NYJ Mild Negative three-down, receiving path if trailing.

Sun 1:00 | Texans at Colts

IND +1.5 / 42.5 · Implied 20.50–22.00 · 47/53
Script: Indianapolis Neutral / Houston Neutral · Low · Neutral

Rush Pass

IND x1.00 ×1.00

HOU ×1.00 ×1.00

How it plays: Tight spread, both WR1s Out. Do not force a script lean. Personnel first.

Personnel: Jones live. Taylor RB1. Pierce Out. Stroud live. Nico Collins Out. Schultz featured outlet.

Prop lean: Taylor IND Neutral featured snaps. Stroud HOU Neutral; remaining WR room absorbs Nico’s targets. Do not stack either passing game on script.

Sun 1:00 | Panthers at Browns

CLE +2.5 / 42.5 · Implied 20.00–22.50 · 44/56
Script: Cleveland Mild Negative / Carolina Mild Positive · Medium · Neutral

Rush   Pass

CLE ×0.90 ×1.10

CAR ×1.10 ×0.94

How it plays: Small road favorite, mid-total. If Carolina leads, Hubbard early downs rise, nd Young attempts flatten. Watson pass volume expands if Cleveland trails.

Personnel: Watson live. Judkins featured. Young live. Hubbard RB1. Brooks IR.

Prop lean: Hubbard CAR Mild Positive early-down. Watson CLE Mild Negative pass-up. Judkins CLE Mild Negative team script, still featured snaps.

Sun 1:00 | Patriots at Jaguars

JAX −3.0 / 45.5 · Implied 24.25–21.25 · 59/41
Script: Jacksonville Mild Positive / New England Mild Negative · Medium · Neutral

Rush Pass

JAX ×1.10 ×0.94

NE ×0.90 ×1.10

How it plays: Field-goal home favorite. If Jacksonville leads, RB early-down usage rises, and Lawrence attempts flatten. Maye pass volume expands if New England trails.

Personnel: Lawrence live. Maye live. Both rooms expected to be full at QB.

Prop lean: Lawrence JAX Mild Positive, attempts compress only if they lead. Maye NE Mild Negative pass-up.

Sun 4:05 / 4:25 | Cardinals at 49ers

SF −8.5 / 48.5 · Implied 28.50–20.00 · 78/22
Script: San Francisco Strong Positive / Arizona Strong Negative · High · Neutral

RushPass

SF×1.20×0.86

ARI×0.82×1.18

How it plays: Two-score home favorite. Headline Strong No. 1 on rush multiplier. If SF leads, CMC late-game share rises, and Purdy attempts flatten. Brissett stays in a full chase script. Conner IR.

Personnel: Purdy / McCaffrey / Kittle live. Brissett live. McBride TE1. Conner IR.

Prop lean: CMC SF Strong Positive bulk RB. Brissett ARI: strong negative pass-up. McBride ARI routes in a deficit.

Sun 4:05 / 4:25 | Vikings at Buccaneers

TB +1.5 / 42.5 · Implied 20.50–22.00 · 47/53
Script: Tampa Bay Neutral / Minnesota Neutral · Low · Neutral

Rush Pass

TB ×1.00 ×1.00

MIN ×1.00 ×1.00

How it plays: One-possession pick’em. Murray cleared and expected. Do not force a script lean.

Personnel: Mayfield live. Irving featured. Murray expected. Jefferson WR1. Aaron Jones featured.

Prop lean: Irving TB Neutral featured snaps. Jefferson MIN Neutral high target share. Murray evaluation snaps, not a script upgrade.

Sun International | Ravens vs Cowboys (Rio, Maracanã)

DAL +3.5 / 52.5 · Implied 24.50–28.00 · 40/60
Script: Dallas Neutral / Baltimore Neutral · Low · Heat

Rush Pass

DAL ×1.00 ×1.00

BAL ×1.00 ×1.00

How it plays: Neutral-site travel, highest total on the board. Both offenses live, field-goal spread. Heat is a surface/conditioning flag, not a volume flip. Do not force a script lean.

Personnel: Prescott live. Javonte featured. Lamb WR1. Lamar live. Henry RB1. Flowers Q.

Prop lean: Henry BAL Neutral featured snaps. Lamb DAL Neutral reception floor. Flowers is the only high-impact skill flag.

Sun 4:05 | Raiders at Saints

NO −3.5 / 43.5 · Implied 23.50–20.00 · 61/39
Script: New Orleans Mild Positive / Las Vegas Mild Negative · Medium · Neutral

Rush Pass

NO ×1.10 ×0.94

LV ×0.90 ×1.10

How it plays: Indoor field-goal number. If New Orleans leads, committee early downs rise, and Shough attempts flatten. Cousins' pass volume expands if Las Vegas trails.

Personnel: Shough live. Kamara / committee. Olave WR1. Cousins live. Jeanty RB1. Bowers Q, expected if active.

Prop lean: Bowers LV Mild Negative, availability first, bulk TE snaps only if confirmed active. Jeanty LV Mild Negative checkdowns if trailing. Olave: NO routes in a lean-control script.

Sun 8:20 NBC | Rams at Broncos

DEN +2.5 / 45.5 · Implied 21.50–24.00 · 44/56
Script: Denver Neutral / L.A. Rams Neutral · Low · Altitude

Rush Pass

DEN ×1.00 ×1.00

LAR ×1.00 ×1.00

How it plays: SNF one-possession game at altitude. Dual skill-injury watch. Do not force a script lean.

Personnel: Nix live. Dobbins Q, Harvey Q, Stafford live. Kyren RB1. Nacua Q, leaning out after missing Week 2. Adams live WR1 if Nacua sits.

Prop lean: Kyren LAR Neutral featured snaps. Adams LAR WR1 if Nacua sits. Denver RB committee risk if both backs are limited.

Mon 8:15 ESPN | Eagles at Bears

CHI +4.5 / 41.5 · Implied 18.50–23.00 · 36/64
Script: Chicago Mild Negative / Philadelphia Mild Positive · Medium · Neutral

Rush Pass

CHI ×0.90 ×1.10

PHI ×1.10 ×0.94

How it plays: Live-unit mismatch. Chicago’s posted 0.11 EPA is the Williams unit, not this offense. Keenum expected. Extra-day MNF. Blowout Watch if Williams and Bagent are both ruled out and Barkley is full. Cap stays Mild.

Personnel: Keenum expected. Williams Expected DNP. Bagent still in protocol. Swift featured. Hurts live. Barkley Q (shoulder). Goedert Doubtful. DeVonta Q.

Prop lean: Keenum CHI Mild Negative full snaps, backup-QB chase, not the posted EPA unit. Hurts PHI Mild Positive. Barkley only if confirmed active — do not assume a full snap share. Swift CHI featured even in a trail script.

That’s 2–16. Thursday (ATL–GB) is closed.

These materials are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not intended as betting or financial advice.