SCIOFF PODCAST EP 308

Key Outcomes

• Finding: A hybrid model (combining ADP and internal scoring) outperformed both ADP and the original subtraction method in a 16-round draft test, beating ADP in 9/12 draft slots. 2

• Finding: The hybrid model suggests a three-layer draft strategy (rounds 1–5, 6–10, 11–16) rather than a two-layer split. 34

• Finding: Mid-season results show the team's data-driven approach is significantly outperforming ADP, with only one FFPC team more than 50 points out of a playoff spot. 5

• Decisions Made

• Draft Strategy: The team will lean toward a three-layer draft approach (1–5, 6–10, 11–16) based on AI-driven testing results. 34

• Waiver Strategy: Focus on deep-bench speculation, specifically targeting dollar-value IR players and handcuffs/bit players (e.g., Goodson in Dallas, DeMarcus Robinson, LeQuint Allen in Jacksonville). 789

• Betting Stance: Be conservative this week due to high quarterback volatility and weather uncertainty. 1011

Metrics & Findings

• Hybrid Model Performance:

  • Beat ADP in 9 out of 12 draft slots for 10 rounds. 2

  • Beat ADP in 7 out of 12 draft slots for 16 rounds. 2

• FFPC Performance:

• • 17 one-QB leagues: 6 teams are currently #1 (approx. 33% vs. 8% expected). 12

  • 23 teams total: only one team is more than 50 points out of a playoff spot. 5

  • Weekly consistency: "bad" weeks are around +30 points vs. the public's bad weeks in the 80s. 13

• Player Comparisons (Reedy vs. Internal):

• • High agreement on JSN, CD Lamb, McBride, AJ Brown, Loveland, Nico, Rasheed Rice. 14

  • Strong disagreement on Brock Bowers (internal score 96; Reedy hated him) and Henry (internal hated; Reedy loved). 1516

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• Quarterback Splits:

• • Josh Allen has the highest favorability over the next 5–6 games. 17

  • Other favorable QBs include Drake May, Stafford, Prescott, and Purdy. 17

• Thursday Night Game (Jacksonville vs. Baltimore):

  • Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite; total is 40. 1819

  • Baltimore D allows 68% red zone success; Jacksonville is about half that. 19

  • Jacksonville efficiency is 10th; Baltimore is 27th. 20

Risks & Blockers

• Quarterback Volatility: Six QB changes this week, including Lamar Jackson/Snoop Huntley out, Jacoby Brissett potentially to Baltimore, Joe Milton starting for Philadelphia, Minshew with Arizona, and Drew Lock back for Seattle. 2122

• Weather: Potential rain in Baltimore for Thursday Night Football; New England has wind concerns (approx. 17 mph). 112324

• Model Reliability: Weather models are currently less reliable due to missing upper-air soundings; game-day monitoring is required. 25

• Bye Week Crunch: Week 11 is "Biomageddon" with six teams on bye (Cleveland, Atlanta, Green Bay, New England, Rams, Seahawks). 26

• Action Items

• John: Run a final end-of-season test comparing Reedy, internal scoring, and the hybrid model. 28

• John: Share the QB Home/Away PPR Splits report and streaming notes (easiest/hardest matchups, rush/pass tilts). 929

• Dennis: Prepare for the Checkdown appearance tomorrow (6:00 or 7:00 ET) with a "guy outside the top 24" and a "guy inside the top 12" to avoid. 3031

• Both: Monitor LeQuint Allen and Chris Rodriguez availability for Jacksonville. 1832