What If: The Winners Guide to Fantasy Football, AFC East 

by Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any area of life is tough. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will look at each division to highlight what to watch to try to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the AFC East.  

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. 

Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.

Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk, indicating that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past 3 seasons will only use full seasons when possible and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

AFC East Buffalo Bills

If it wasn’t for a few kicks that went “Wide Right,” the Bills might have beaten the Chiefs and gotten their chance at the Super Bowl, but they can’t seem to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs when it counts. They loaded up on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL draft, so many of the same players are in the mix for Fantasy Football this season. The offense got a boost with the extension of RB James Cook. 

QB: Josh Allen MVP25 120 (QB4) MVP24 113 (QB5) Last 3 Seasons High 144 (QB1) Low 113 (QB5) 

In real football terms, S Allen was the MVP last year, but in Fantasy Football, his weekly upside consistency dropped with a few down weeks when the defense dominated, and Superman could leave his cape at home. A solid value as QB2 pick 32 in FPPC and QB2 pick 25 in Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Mitch Trubisky is a competent backup

RB: James Cook: MVP25 85 (RB17) MVP24 94 (RB14) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (RB14) Low 71 (RB22)

A massive boost in TDs to 18 last year, which was double his career total, helped boost his MVP Index the previous season, so that some regression can be expected. 

Next Man Up: Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will again take some touches away from Cook

WR: Khalil Shakir: MVP25 75 (WR25) MVP24 79 (WR23) Last 3 Seasons High 79 (WR23) Low 22* (WR49)

The decline of Amari Cooper and the sluggish development of rookie Keon Coleman allowed Shakir to have his best season. His ADP of WR44 pick 99 on FPPC and WR45 pick 94 on Fantasy Pros Consensus provides some upside, but he may lose target share to others.  

WR: Keon Coleman: MVP25 65 (WR29) MVP24 17 (WR>50) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 17 (WR>50) 

Coleman is only entering his age-22 season and showed some spurts late in the season and in the playoffs. He has good upside potential at ADP of WR49 pick 109 on FPPC and WR49 pick 122 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore   

TE: Dalton Kincaid: MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 9 (TE>15) Last 3 Seasons High 36 (TE11) Low 9 (TE>15)  

Kincaid followed up a solid rookie season with a massive drop in weekly upside consistency in year two. He offers solid upside potential as a late TE pick at ADP TE14 pick 107 on FPPC and TE15 pick 128 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

AFC East Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins' offense took a nosedive last season, going from the top-ranked group in the league in 2023 to 18th-ranked the previous year. While some of that could be attributed to injuries, some of it could be defenses figuring out the system of Coach Mike McDaniel. This season could be a make-or-break season for this talented young coach, and there are already concerns with injuries to some of their top players in training camp. 

QB: Tua Tagovailoa: MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 73 (QB12) Last 3 seasons High 100 (QB7) Low 73 (QB12)

When Tua is perfect, the offense performs like a Ferrari, but when he gets hurt or struggles, it's more like a Ford Pinto. Tua is a solid value as a QB2 in 1QB leagues with an ADP of QB25 pick 265 in FPPC and 21 pick 149 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. One of my favorite QB2/3 plays in Superflex or Best Ball. 

Next Man Up: Zach Wilson and rookie Quinn Ewers are battling for the backup position. 

 RB: De’Von Achane: MVP25 120 (RB4) MVP24 131 (RB2) Last 3 Seasons High 131 (RB2) Low 122* (RB4) 

One of the most dynamic RBs in the game and therefore most valuable in Fantasy Football when he can stay healthy. A solid value at RB6 pick 13 on FPPC or RB7 pick 14 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Rookie Ollie Gordon could emerge over Jaylen Wright

WR: Tyreek Hill: MVP25 100 (WR11) MVP24 75 (WR25) Last 3 Seasons High 162 (WR1) Low 75 (WR25)  

An injury from a traffic stop might have been part of the reason for his decline last year, but there is concern that Father Time will win or that the Dolphins' offensive scheme has been figured out. Cheetah is priced right at WR13 pick 31 on FPPC and WR13 pick 28 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Jaylen Waddle: MVP25 85 (WR18) MVP24 36 (WR44) Last 3 Seasons High 92 (WR14) Low 36 (WR44) 

Waddle played hurt all last season, and that was probably the reason for the sharp decline. He is a nice value play at WR31 pick 65 on FPPC and WR33 pick 74 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Malik Washington  

TE: Darren Waller: MVP25 40 (TE10) MVP24 DNP Last 3 Seasons High 50*(TE8) Low 45* (TE9)

Last year, Johnu Smith was all-world, but that was most likely because of injuries that slowed their top two WRs. Waller is a mystery pick late at ADP of TE29 pick 233 on FPPC and TE22 pick 225 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. A solid backup TE with potential upside.  

AFC East New England Patriots   

QB: Drake Maye: MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 60 (QB16) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 60 (QB16) 

Maye had a solid rookie campaign when he took over the starting role. His rushing upside could be a nice boost in Fantasy Football production. He is a solid value at ADP of QB13 pick 135 in FPPC and QB16 pick 123 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. One of my favorite QB2 investments. 

RB: TreVeyon Henderson: ROOKIE: MVP25 75 (RB21)

The only thing that could suppress Henderson’s weekly value in Fantasy Football is if he shares the backfield evenly with the veteran. He is priced right at an ADP of RB17 pick 38 in FPPC and RB20 pick 51 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson: MVP25 55 (RB30) MVP24 47 (RB32) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (RB14) Low 47 (RB32) 

Last season was the worst year for Stevenson, which opened the door for more competition. There is nothing but upside at his ADP of RB43 pick 119 in FPPC and RB40 pick 108 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, and makes a solid handcuff to the rookie. 

WR: Stefon Diggs: MVP25 85(WR18) MVP24 100* (WR11) Last 3 Seasons High 137 (WR3) Low 94 (WR13)  

Just 3 years ago, Diggs posted a Top 2 season, and last year he was a solid Top 10 guy until he got hurt. Offers incredible upside value at WR39 pick 78 on FPPC and WR40 pick 85 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Kyle Williams: ROOKIE: MVP25 60 (WR31)

Williams is an intriguing rookie landing in a great spot. He offers nothing but upside potential, especially later in the season, at an ADP of WR65 pick 168 on FPPC and WR69 pick 168 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: DeMario Douglass is a great late-round pick whose upside is top 2 in targets for the Patriots.   

TE: Hunter Henry: MVP25 25 (TE13) MVP24 13 (TE>15) Last 3 Seasons High 13 (TE>15) Low -25 (TE>15)

Once upon a time, way back in 2020, Henry had an MVP Index of 57 (TE5), so he has the back class to be a sneaky value pick at ADP of TE19 pick 139 on FPPC and TE19 pick 151 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

AFC East New York Jets

QB: Justin Fields MVP25 75 (QB12) MVP24 83* (QB10) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 67 (QB14) 

Last year with the Steelers, Fields started strong but was benched after a 4-2 start for Russel Wilson. This year, the job is all his with the Jets. His ADP of QB11 pick 126 on FPPC and QB13 pick 115 on Fantasy Pros Consensus are tempting as a QB2 this year in Fantasy Football. 

Next Man Up: Tyrod Taylor

RB: Breece Hall: MVP25 110 (RB8) MVP24 87 (RB16) Last 3 Seasons High 112(RB7) Low 87 (RB16)

Can the Jets strike Breece Lightning again? Hall can be a considerable value at RB16 pick 37 on FPPC and RB14 pick 31 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Braelon Allen might earn enough of a split to give him standalone value at pick 118 on FPPC and pick 147 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, and is a must-pick handcuff to Hall this season. 

WR: Garret Wilson: MVP25 100 (WR11) MVP24 88 (WR17) Last 3 Seasons High 88 (WR17) Low 53(WR36)  

Wilson is teamed up with his former college QB, and while that might limit some of his upside, he is the only WR worth targeting on this roster. He is a considerable value at ADP WR15 pick 33 on FPPC and WR19 pick 35 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Veteran Josh Reynolds or rookie Arian Smith 

TE: Mason Taylor ROOKIE: MVP25 25 (TE14) 

It’s a dart throw for upside value with the rookie at an ADP of TE23 pick 167 on FPPC and TE26 pick 181 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, but I will let someone else throw that dart this year.