What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football, AFC West

by Dennis Michelsen 

Forecasting the future in any area of life is tough. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will look at each division to highlight what to watch to try to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the AFC West. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk, indicating that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past 3 seasons will only use full seasons when possible and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

AFC West Denver Broncos

This year is Sean Payton's third year, and expectations are high after winning 10 games last season. Unlike last season, this year the Broncos start the year with their QB of the Future already in place. They brought in a rookie RB and a veteran RB, and added another young WR to their mix, while retaining most of their veterans. Hopes are high for an even better year in the ultra-competitive “Wild West” division in the NFL. 

QB: Bo Nix: MVP25 90 (QB7) MVP24 82 (QB10) Last 3 seasons High 82 (QB10) Low 82 (QB10) 

His development in the real NFL and his value in Fantasy Football surprised some last season. On the fake football side, we may have seen close to his peak value the previous year. Being drafted as QB8 pick 102 in FPPC and QB8 pick 77 according to FPPC consensus. 

Next Man Up: Jarret Stidham leads Sam Ehlinger in a camp battle for QB2. 

RB: RJ Harvey: ROOKIE MVP25 70 (RB23)

RB: JK Dobbins: MVP25 60 (RB29) MVP24 85 (RB18) Last 3 Seasons High 85 (RB18) Low 43* (32)

Entering the season, we have a solid time-share RB situation in Denver. Harvey is being drafted RB21 pick 53 in FPPC and RB23 Pick 53 according to Fantasy Pros Consensus, with Dobbins at RB34 pick 96 in FPPC and RB36 pick 115 according to Fantasy Pros Consensus. Both RBs are priced right if the volume split is close to even. 

Next Man Up: Jaleel McLaughlin or Audric Estime 

WR: Courtland Sutton: MVP25 70 (WR28) MVP24 82 (WR21) Last 3 Seasons High 82 (WR22) Low 57 (WR33) 

Sutton is coming off his career year and had his contract extended, which is usually a good sign for future Fantasy Football value. Sutton was picked at his finishing value last year of WR24 pick 51 on FPPC and WR22 pick 49 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. Sutton could lose some target share with such a deep WR Room of improving young players. 

WR: Marvin Mims: MVP25 65 (WR30) MVP24 100* (WR11) Last 3 Seasons High 100* (WR11) Low 25* (WR48)

Mims had fewer than 10 full games played, but showed some pop in the snaps he did play. He is an all upside pick with an ADP of 139 on FPPC and 134 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Pat Bryant, Devaughan Vele, and Troy Franklin 

TE: Evan Engram: MVP25 55 (TE6) MVP24 44* (TE9) Last 3 Seasons High 76 (TE3) Low 18 (TE>15)

Engram was acquired to fit a role in Sean Payton’s offense, and with an improving young QB in Nix, he is an intriguing pick at TE8 pick 76 on FPPC and TE8 pick 88 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

AFC West Kansas City Chiefs

There are a few key changes for the defending champions of the AFC, and a few guys are worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. The Chiefs lost one of the best guards in the league to free agency, but added a rookie left tackle who could improve that position. The last time the Chiefs had a solid LT, they finished first in yards by over 400 and first in points by 19. The Chiefs also lost some key defensive players to free agency, but should return a Top 5-10 unit. 

QB: Patrick Mahomes: MVP25 90 (QB7) MVP24 87.5 (QB8) Last 3 Seasons High 153 (QB1) Low 75 (QB12)

Being drafted as QB6 right now at pick 82 in FPPC and pick 58 according to Fantasy Pros consensus. If the Chiefs' passing game starts lighting it up again in the regular season, then Mahomes is a steal. 

Next Man Up: Gardner Minshew

 RB: Isiah Pacheco: MVP25 85 (RB17) MVP24 40* (RB33) Last 3 seasons High 100 (RB13) Low 73 (RB26)

Injuries derailed Pacheco’s season last year, and he is being drafted RB23 at pick 66 in FPPC and RB28 pick 61 according to Fantasy Pros Consensus. Should be a solid RB10-18 guy when healthy, but handcuff is a mystery with rookie Brashard Smith and veterans Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell all capable. 

Next Man Up: Brashard Smith is an interesting handcuff to Pacheco. 

WR: Rasheen Rice: MVP25 95 (WR12) MVP24 133* (WR3) Last 3 seasons High 87 (WR17) Low 87 (WR17)

Suspension looms for Rice with a hearing coming up after week 4, although a settlement before the season starts is still possible. Will he lose two games or more than 10 games? Being drafted as WR29 at pick 59 in FPPC and WR25 pick 50 according to Fantasy Pros Consensus. Top 5 upside makes him an intriguing pick, but comes with a possible lost season due to suspension. 

WR: Xavier Worthy: MVP23 70 (WR28) MVP24 56 (WR33) Last 3 Seasons High 56 (WR33) Low 56 (WR33)

This talented rookie posted an MVP Index of 120, which was tied for 26th best at WR last season; tied with Drake London and Tee Higgins, who are being picked WR9 and WR13, respectively. Being drafted at WR20 pick 45 in FPPC and WR23 pick 59 according to Fantasy Pros Consensus. Even without the possible suspension of Rice, Worthy is a considerable value with solid upside. 

Next Man Up: Hollywood Brown is an intriguing late-round pick with the possible Rice suspension with a “Back Class” of MVP Index 83 (WR20)

TE: Travis Kelce: MVP25 70 (TE3) MVP24 62 (TE4) Last 3 Seasons High 129 (TE1) Low 62 (TE4) 

This year could be the final season for this future Hall of Fame TE, and he came into camp in the best shape since 2022. Being drafted as the TE6 pick 62 in FPPC and TE5 pick 73 according to the Fantasy Pros

 Consensus. While 2024 was a down season by Kelce's standards, it was still fine for the price you are paying for him this season. 

Next Man Up: Noah Gray is a solid waiver wire pickup if Kelce gets hurt 

AFC West Las Vegas Raiders

QB: Geno Smith: MVP25 65 (QB15) MVP24 53 (QB19) Last 3 Seasons High 76 (QB12) Low 53 (QB19)

The new Raiders coaching staff traded for Geno Smith for a reason. The job is his for the whole season, making him an intriguing QB3 in Superflex leagues with an ADP of QB27 pick 310 on FPPC and QB26 pick 172 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Ashton Jeanty: ROOKIE: MVP25 100 (RB13) 

Ashton Jeanty had an incredible season in his final year at Boise State, but now he goes up against better competition every week. Safe bet for over 325 touches as a rookie, but his ADP of RB5, pick 11 on FPPC, and RB6 pick 10 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is a bit expensive. 

WR: Jakobi Meyers: WR25 80 (WR22) MVP24 87 (WR17) Last 3 Seasons High 87 (WR17) Low 75 (WR25)

One of the most consistent WR2 types in Fantasy Football over the past 3 seasons, with his range from low to high WR17-25 and a nice value pick at WR36 pick 77 on FPPC and WR39 pick 90 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Don’t’e Thornton or Jack Bech 

TE: Brock Bowers: MVP25 95 (TE1) MVP24 94 (TE2) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (TE2) Low 94 (TE2) 

Last year’s rookie phenom set every rookie record possible for a rookie TE, and his ADP of TE1 pick six on FPPC and TE1 pick 16 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is the apparent result. Could he lose some targets in a different offense with a dominant rookie RB? That might make the TE1 value less inviting. 

AFC West Los Angeles Chargers 

QB: Justin Herbert: MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 59 (QB17) Last 3 Seasons High 85(QB9) Low 59 (QB17)

The coach said he plans to open the offense up a bit more in season two with the Chargers, but that would go against his historic trends. Herbert is a great value pick as part of a matchup tandem in 1QB or as the QB2 in a Superflex league at an ADP of QB16 pick 156 in FPPC or QB14 pick 111 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Omarion Hampton: ROOKIE: MVP25 90 (RB15)

Hampton’s draft capital suggests they will use him early and often in what was an attempt to be a run-heavy offense last year. However, does the veteran they signed in free agency take away some of his upside? Priced right at ADP of RB13 pick 28 in FPPC and RB15 pick 34 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Najee Harris: MVP25 65 (RB29) MVP24 75 (RB25) Last 3 Seasons High 106 (RB9) Low 41 (RB41)

Usually, when an RB is signed via free agency for a decent cap number, you expect solid use, but a fireworks injury leaves his availability slightly up in the air. Combine that with the team spending a high draft pick on a rookie, and that leaves his value versus an ADP of RB51 pick 142 on FPPC and RB38 pick 102 on Fantasy Pros Consensus a question mark. 

WR: Ladd McConkey: MVP25 100 (WR11) MVP24 93 (WR14) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 93 (WR14)

After a great rookie campaign, the Chargers have added some solid talent at WR with the addition of rookie Tre Harris and the return of veteran Keenan Allen. McConkey is being drafted right at the expected value as WR11 pick 23 on FPPC and WR11 pick 26 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Keenan Allen: MVP25 55 (WR34) MVP24 53 (WR36) Last 3 Seasons High 138 (WR3) Low 53 (WR36)

There was a massive drop in MVP Index from Allen last season with the Bears, and now he returns home to the Chargers, but gets more competition for targets. His ADP of WR56 pick 132 on FPPC and WR58 pick 155 on Fantasy Pros Consensus provides nothing but upside potential for a bye-week flex starter. 

Next Man Up: Tre Harris and Quentin Johnson both have solid value as late WR adds. 

TE: None of the players at this position on this team have a solid enough upside for Fantasy Football this season in typical 1TE redraft leagues.