What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football- NFC West 

By Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any aspect of life is a challenging endeavor. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will review each division to highlight key players to watch, aiming to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the NFC West. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. 

Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a consistent score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season. 

Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk; that means that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past three seasons will only be used for full seasons when possible, and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

NFC West Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are a tough team to forecast. First, you have the QB with rushing upside that doesn’t seem to run as often. Second, you have the cagey veteran RB with a young guy waiting his chance to take over. Third, you have the son of a Hall of Fame WR who had a good but not great rookie season, just like his dad, who happened to have an impressive breakout his second year in the league. Finally, you have an elite TE who doesn’t seem to find the endzone. There are a lot of upsides to this team for Fantasy Football. 

QB: Kyler Murray MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 65 (QB14) Last 3 Seasons High 110 (QB5) Low 65 (QB14)

His range for the last 3 years is QB5-14, and he is priced right on FPPC at QB10 pick 115 on FPPC and QB8 pick 93 on the Fantasy Pros Consensus, yet I have ended up with very few shares in this year’s leagues. 

Next Man Up: Jacoby Brissett  

RB: James Conner MVP25 95 (RB14) MVP24 100 (RB13) Last 3 Seasons High 117 (RB5) Low 100 (RB13)

Father Time is undefeated, but very few RBs have been as consistent as Conner. I bet that he loses some touch volume to the younger RB, but is still a solid value at ADP of RB20 pick 52 on FPPC and 19 pick 47 on the Fantasy Pros Consensus, especially since you can get an affordable handcuff. 

RB: Trey Benson MVP25 55 (RB30) MVP 24 33* (RB35) High/Low 33* (RB35) 

There weren’t enough reps to get a solid read on him, but certainly nothing to hate, and his ADP of RB42 pick 118 on FPPC and RB49 pick 136 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is cheap insurance for your Conner shares. 

Next Man Up: Michael Carter  

WR: Marvin Harrison MVP25 85 (WR21) MVP24 50 (WR31) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 50 (WR31) 

MHJ had an excellent season in real football, his rookie season, but the expectations were for much more in Fantasy Football, and that didn’t work out. This year, the price tag is much closer to reality, with an ADP of WR16 pick 38 on FPPC and WR17 pick 41 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, so that I would be a buyer for the upside potential. 

WR: Michael Wilson MVP25 30 (WR46) MVP24 13 (WR>55) Last 3 Seasons High 30 (WR46) Low 13 (WR>55)

Wilson is the perfect example of an “Ordinary WR” and my advice is to avoid ordinary WRs in Fantasy Football, even at the low-price ADP over pick 225 on FPPC and Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Zay Jones 

TE: Trey McBride MVP25 95 (TE2) MVP24 106 (TE1) Last 3 Seasons High 106 (TE1) Low 92 (TE2)

For an elite TE in Fantasy Football, McBride seems allergic to the endzone. If his TD rate ever increased to that of a normal TE of his caliber, he would be the runaway TE1 every season. He is a little pricey at an ADP of TE2 pick 12 on FPPC and TE2 pick 26 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Elijah Higgins

NFC West Los Angeles Rams

The Fantasy Football world is all-in on the Rams’ RB and both of their WRs, and here we are, less than 2 weeks from the start of the season, and their QB has back issues. Stafford’s backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, has led a team to the Super Bowl and helped make his RB and WRs top performers in Fantasy Football, but that was a while back and in a much different offense. 

QB: Matthew Stafford MVP25 65 (QB14) MVP24 19 (QB26) Last 3 Seasons High 71 (QB13) Low 19 (QB26)

Father Time is undefeated, and I get very worried when older players are coming into the season with ailments that could instantly derail their season. His ADP is beautiful as QB3 in Superflex leagues, but in 1QB, I will pass, even at an affordable price of ADP QB26 (pick 299 in FPPC) and QB23 (pick 163 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

Next Man Up: Jimmy Garoppolo 

RB: Kyren Williams MVP25 100 (RB13) MVP24 119 (RB5) Last 3 Seasons High 142 (RB2) Low 119 (RB5) 

Each year, Fantasy Football analysts have tried to come up with a reason that Kyren Williams won’t be a great choice in fantasy football, and each year, he puts up significant numbers. This season, he is priced right at an ADP of RB12 pick 27 on FPPC and an RB11 pick 27 on the Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Jarquez Hunter or Blake Corum  

WR: Puka Nacua MVP25 110 (WR8) MVP24 130 (WR3) Last 3 Seasons High 130 (WR3) Low 118 (WR6)

Cooper Kupp is gone, but Davante Adams arrives, and that has me concerned about Nacua losing some target share in the weeks to come. That, combined with Stafford’s back issue, has me looking elsewhere at an ADP of WR7 pick 15 on FPPC and WR7 pick 11 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Davante Adams MVP25 90 (WR15) MVP24 100 (WR11) Last 3 Seasons High 106 (WR9) Low 82 (WR21)

Adams didn’t appear to lose much last season, and I would expect another solid year from this potential future Hall of Famer. His ADP of WR17 pick 40 on FPPC and WR16 pick 44 on Fantasy Pros Consensus might be a little too expensive, but I have seen him drop into round 5 in a few leagues. 

Next Man Up: Jordan Whittington      

TE: Tyler Higbee MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 100* (TE1) Last 3 Seasons High 6 (TE>15) Low -13 (TE>20)

If you need a TE3 in a Best Ball league, I highly recommend Higbee. However, in single TE leagues, I will find help elsewhere, even at an ADP over pick 225 on FPPC and Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

TE: Terrance Ferguson ROOKIE MVP25 30 (TE12) 

NFC West San Francisco 49ers

The health of the 49ers WRs might open a path for some surprises in Fantasy Football from this squad in 2025. Brock Purdy is a gem of a value in Fantasy Football, and the former Mister Irrelevant should be considered as a solid choice in all formats. CMC, when healthy, is the hands-down RB1 in fake football and appears to be more nutritious than any other RB on the team.  Their WR situation is a mess right now, but that could lead to great years from CMC and Kittle. 

QB: Brock Purdy MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 73 (QB12) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (QB7) Low 73 (QB12)

Next Man Up: Mac Jones

 RB: Christian McCaffrey MVP25 115 (RB) MVP24 50* (RB31) Last 3 Seasons High 175 (RB1) Low 135 (RB2)

Last year, the health of CMC was the best-kept secret in the NFL. This year, he appears healthy, but Father Time is undefeated. The team added Brian Robinson in a trade right at the end of the preseason, which complicates any handcuff decision to CMC, who is priced right at an ADP of RB4 pick eight on FPPC and RB5 pick 10 on the Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Brian Robinson, Isaac Guerendo, and Jordan James

WR: Brandon Aiyuk MVP25 90 (WR15) MVP24 14* (WR>50) Last 3 Seasons High 107 (WR9) Low 77 (WR23)

The best WR left on the 49ers roster will not start week one on the active roster and might not be active until much later in the year. But he is a Top 15 WR when he is active, and his ADP of WR57 pick 136 on FPPC and WR52 pick 119 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is a bargain IF you get eight games from him at the end of the year. 

WR: Jauan Jennings MVP25 60 (WR31) MVP24 67 (WR27) Last 3 Seasons High 67 (WR27) Low 0* (WR>55)

Injury and contract concerns are a bad combination for a WR whose best season was only flex starter-worthy at best. His current ADP of WR43 pick 91 on FPPC and WR48 pick 98 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is about where I might even pass on a healthy Jennings. 

WR: Ricky Pearsall MVP25 45 (WR40) MVP24 10 (WR>50) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 10 (WR>50) 

The last player to get shot as a rookie came back to be a solid Fantasy Football producer in year two, and that player is ironically on the 49ers roster now, too. Pearsall showed some flashes towards the end of the season, and there is a logical range of outcomes that has him as the best WR on the 49ers roster. That’s a nice bargain at an ADP of WR34 pick 73 on FPPC and WR36 pick 87 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Jacob Cowing and Skyy Moore

TE: George Kittle MVP25 70 (TE3) MVP24 121 (TE1) Last 3 Seasons High 121 (TE1) Low 56 (TE6)

Despite all the buzz around Brock Bowers and Trey McBride last year at TE, Kittle was the best TE in Fantasy Football last season. Entering this season, I felt there could be a drop off with the return of CMC and Aiyuk, but current circumstances make him a nice value at TE3 pick 24 on FPPC and TE3 pick 39 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

NFC West Seattle Seahawks

There are numerous changes in Seattle, but the most significant change might not be the players on the offensive roster; it might be the change at Offensive Coordinator. Klint Kubiak comes from the Shanahan Coaching Tree, so I expect a much better offensive scheme this season. Whether Sam Darnold’s comeback was just a product of a great system in Minnesota last year will be known quickly. A Kubiak offense with tools like Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and rookie Tory Horton will be fun to watch. 

QB: Sam Darnold MVP25 65 (QB14) MVP24 88 (QB8) Last 3 Seasons High 88 (QB8) Low 50* (QB21)

With a different Offensive Coordinator, I might be worried about the Darnold transition to a new offense. Still, he is extremely cheap in Fantasy Football and could be a solid late QB grab at an ADP of QB28 (pick 300 on FPPC) and QB27 (pick 178 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

Next Man Up: Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe

RB: Kenneth Walker MVP25 100 (RB13) MVP24 109 (RB9) Last 3 Seasons High 118 (RB5) Low 71 (RB22)

While KW3 has missed a few games in most of his seasons in the NFL, his consistency when he is on the field has been solid. He is a solid value at an ADP of RB14 pick 34 on FPPC and RB17 pick 43 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Zach Charbonnet MVP25 90 (RB15) MVP24 91 (RB15) Last 3 Seasons High 91 (RB15) Low 0 (RB>45)

Charb showed only a 10% reduction in weekly value when he started for KW3 last season, and with a new OC, he might even have value weekly without an injury to KW3. Priced right at an ADP of RB35 pick 98 on FPPC and RB35 pick 101 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Damien Martinez 

WR: Jaxon Smith Njigba MVP25 100 (WR11) MVP24 88 (WR16) Last 3 Seasons High 88 (WR16) Low 19 (WR50)

The departure of Lockett last season gave the expected boost to JSN’s weekly value, and now the departure of DK Metcalf gives him surefire Top 12 Fantasy Football value. There is still some upside value at an ADP of WR14 pick 33 on FPPC and WR14 pick 30 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Cooper Kupp MVP25 70 (WR28) MVP24 75 (WR25) Last 3 Seasons High 82 (WR21) Low 75 (WR25)

This spot was an excellent landing spot for the cagey veteran with an OC that will get the most out of what he has left in the tank. He is not a threat to JSN’s target share but offers sneaky value at an ADP of WR46 pick 104 on FPPC and WR43 pick 89 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Tory Horton      

TE: Elijah Arroyo ROOKIE MVP25 10 (TE>15)

The departure of veteran Noah Fant opens the door for a rookie TE I drafted quite a bit in Dynasty rookie drafts and might be an interesting TE3 in Best Ball. His ADP of TE24 pick 177 on FPPC and TE31 pick 218 on Fantasy Pros Consensus might even be worth a dart throw for your TE2 in Redraft. 

Next Man Up: AJ Barner