What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football NFC East 

by Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any aspect of life is challenging. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will review each division to highlight key players to watch, aiming to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the NFC East.  

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a consistent score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season. Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk; that means that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past three seasons will only be used for full seasons when possible, and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

NFC East Dallas Cowboys

A Cowboys Cheerleader for their last Super Bowl appearance could now have one of their grandchildren as a member of this year’s cheerleader squad! That’s how long it has been since the former America’s Team has been to the big game. If Dak stays healthy this season, this offense will produce enough points to avoid disappointing their fans again in the playoffs. While they might win a title in real football again this year, they will have players who will lead many Fantasy Football managers to their championship game. 

QB: Dak Prescott: MVP25 90 (QB7) MVP24 43* (QB22) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (QB7) Low 75 (QB12)

When he is healthy, Dak has never been lower than 10th best in Fantasy Football at the QB position, which makes his ADP of QB9 (pick 115 on FPPC) and QB11 (pick 98 on Fantasy Pros Consensus) a considerable bargain. 

Next Man Up: Joe Milton  

RB: Javonte Williams MVP25 50 (RB31) MVP24 33 (RB35) Last 3 Seasons High 60 (RB29) Low 33 (RB35)

Someone must win the starting RB job with the Cowboys, and that RB will have some Fantasy Football value. Javonte hasn’t been the same running back since an injury early in his career, but if he is healthy, he could be solid in this role. His ADP of RB37 pick 107 on FPPC and ADP of RB36 pick 107 is very tempting. 

RB: Jaydon Blue ROOKIE MVP25 50 (RB31)

While this rookie doesn’t have the pedigree to be the instant number one, he has very weak competition to emerge as the lead RB on a solid offense. His ADP of RB39 pick 108 on FPPC and RB44 pick 136 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is very appealing. 

Next Man Up: Miles Sanders   

WR: Cee Dee Lamb MVP25 125 (WR3) MVP24 107 (WR9) Last 3 Seasons High 141 (WR2) Low 107 (WR9)

When Dak is healthy and the Cowboys have a solid second option to catch passes, Cee Dee Lamb is a lock for Top 3 production in Fantasy Football at the WR position. His ADP of WR2 pick four on FPPC and WR3 pick six on Fantasy Pros Consensus is very accurate. 

WR: George Pickens MVP25 75 (WR25) MVP24 57 (WR32) Last 3 Seasons High 57 (WR32) Low 23 (WR49)

When the Cowboys traded for the temperamental Pickens, this was a very intriguing move for Fantasy Football. If he comes to play every week, his ADP of WR25 (pick 52 on FPPC) and WR30 (like 67) has some upside value left. 

Next Man Up: Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin 

TE: Jake Ferguson MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 -8 (TE>25) Last 3 Seasons High 41 (TE10) Low -8 (TE>25)

The biggest person in Fantasy Football to benefit from the addition of Pickens is not Lamb but Jake Ferguson. He is a solid later-round TE buy at an ADP of TE13 pick 101 on FPPC and TE15 pick 133 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Luke Schoonmaker

NFC East New York Giants

The Giants have gone back to the drawing board at QB, drafting another rookie and bringing in veteran Russell Wilson. Dart looked good in practice, but they don’t want to live with the growing pains of a rookie because the coaching staff needs to win games to stay employed. We could see a change of the guard at RB, and Malik Nabers should have another great year at WR. 

QB: Russel Wilson MVP25 60 (QB16) MVP24 60 (QB16) Last 3 Seasons High 73 (QB13) Low 53 (QB20)

It’s his job if the Giants stay in contention for a playoff spot, but later in the year, even if he does a solid job, they will want to look at Dart. He is priced like a QB who will lose his career with an ADP over 200 on both FPPC and Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Jaxson Dart

RB: Tyrone Tracy MVP25 60 (RB29) MVP24 61 (RB28) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 61 (RB28)

Last year, he only had to beat out Devin Singletary, but this year, he also must beat out an intriguing rookie in Cam Skattebo, who might be tougher on first down than Tracy. His ADP prices that into the mix at RB29 pick 86 on FPPC and RB29 pick 79 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Cam Skattebo ROOKIE MVP25 60 (RB29)

This player is an unusual rookie RB because he can do most of the things Tracy can do but can also run with more power. This situation will likely result in a split backfield, and whoever performs better in the passing game may gain the edge in terms of volume. His ADP of RB36 pick 107 on FPPC and RB37 pick 106 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is offering great value. 

Next Man Up: Devin Singletary  

WR: Malik Nabers MVP25 130 (WR3) MVP24 127 (WR5) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 127 (WR5)

He proved he is QB-proof last year and gets improved QB play this year, no matter which QB is at the helm. Nabers is one of my favorite picks in the second half of the first round this season at an ADP of WR4 pick 10 on FPPC and WR4 pick seven on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Wan’Dale Robinson MVP25 40 (WR42) MVP24 41 (WR42) Last 3 Seasons High 41 (WR42) Low 14 (WR>50)

Someone else must line up across from Nabers, and last year Robinson made the most of his targets. Could we see a regression in that efficiency? He is one of those ordinary WRs I like to avoid, even at an ADP of WR66 pick 172 in FPPC and WR67 pick 175 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, but I have a few Best Ball shares at that price. 

Next Man Up: Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt 

TE: Theo Johnson MVP25 25 (TE13) MVP24 -25 (TE>25) Last 3 Seasons High/Low -25 (TE>25)

Last year, the hype was greater than the output for Fantasy Football, and I would be a bit leery again this year despite a cheap ADP of TE30 pick 245 on FPPC and TE36 pick 258 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, but I do have a few TE3 shares in Best Ball. 

NFC East Philadelphia Eagles

The World Champions had a superb defense and running game last year, but still had a highly efficient passing game in Fantasy Football. The Salary Cap led to some turnover on the defensive side of the ball, so the Fantasy Football values in the passing game could see some improvement this season.  

QB: Jalen Hurts MVP25 110 (QB5) MVP24 107 (QB6) Last 3 Seasons High 140 (QB1) Low 107 (QB6)

Last year, there was a significant drop-off in the MVP Index for Hurts, but that was just because he didn’t need to do more with the defense, which is fantastic. Even with the drop in production, he still managed a QB6 season and is a safe bet to be closer to the Top 4 this year. Priced right at an ADP of QB4 pick 45 on FPPC and QB4 pick 37 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Sam Howell

RB: Saquon Barkley MVP25 110 (RB8) MVP24 125 (RB3) Last 3 Seasons High 125 (RB3) Low 93 (RB14)

Last year, he was simply amazing and was one of the biggest reasons the Eagles won it all. But he had over 400 opportunities with the ball during the regular season and playoffs combined, and that must take a toll on an RB. Premium priced at an ADP of RB3 pick six on FPPC and RB2 pick three on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Will Shipley and AJ Dillon

WR: AJ Brown MVP25 110 (WR8) MVP24 133 (WR3) Last 3 Seasons High 133 (WR3) Low 100 (WR11)

AJ Brown is getting neglected in Fantasy Football drafts this season because Fantasy Managers don’t think the Eagles throw enough to make AJB worth an early draft pick. However, he was highly efficient last year, posting an MVP Index of over 133, making him a steal at an ADP of WR10 (pick 22 on FPPC and pick 20 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

WR: DeVonta Smith MVP25 85 (WR18) MVP24 92 (WR14) Last 3 Seasons High 92 (WR14) Low 76 (WR24)

This player might be the best WR2 in the league, although Tee Higgins is also in that discussion. DeVonta is very reliable and has some nice spike weeks, making his ADP of WR28 (pick 59 on FPPC) and WR24 (like 54) very attractive again this season. 

Next Man Up: John Metchie and Jahan Dotson

TE: Dallas Goedert MVP25 40 (TE10) MVP24 67* (TE4) Last 3 Seasons High 58 (TE5) Low 23 (TE14)

Over the past 3 seasons, there has been a wide range of performances from Goedert, but he is priced right for that uncertainty with an ADP of TE16 pick 117 on FPPC and TE16 pick 137 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, making him an excellent late TE pick. 

Next Man Up: Grant Calcaterra

NFC East Washington Commanders 

The Commanders transformed into a solid football team last season, thanks in part to the instant success of rookie QB Jayden Daniels. This year, they added Deebo Samuel, who can be valuable when he stays healthy. Brian Robinson was good but not great, and was traded to the 49ers late in training camp, leaving a 7th-round rookie, a veteran who was once an undrafted free agent, and another young RB they had cut from the roster several times in the past. The success of coach Dan Quinn last year has earned him the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he is doing at RB this season. 

 QB: Jayden Daniels MVP25 115 (QB5) MVP24 120 (QB4) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 120 (QB4)

Daniels put together one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history and was an instant top-5 talent in Fantasy Football as well. The concern was whether his slighter frame for a QB who likes to run would be able to survive at this level. Expect him to put up Top 5 Fantasy Football numbers, and he is priced right at an ADP of QB3 pick 40 on FPPC and QB3 pick 30 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

 Next Man Up:  Marcus Mariota

RB: Austin Ekeler MVP25 55 (RB30) MVP24 50 (RB31) Last 3 Seasons High 146 (RB2) Low 50 (RB31)

He was considered the choice as a solid receiving option in a split backfield when B-Rob was the starter, but do we see a resurgence of Ekeler as a lead RB this season without B-Rob? The worst-case scenario is an even split, making him an intriguing late investment at an ADP of RB40 (pick 140) and RB41 (like 119) on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Jacory Croskey Merritt ROOKIE MVP25 55 (RB30) 

JCM, who now wants to be called by his nickname “Bill,” was an intriguing depth play early in draft season due to a high “Opportunity Index,” but the inflation in drafts has gone too far without a clear indication whether he is the RB1 or not. He is now being drafted higher than B-Rob’s old ADP of RB31 pick 87 on FPPC and RB31 pick 92 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Chris Rodriguez

WR: Terry McLaurin MVP25 90 (WR15) MVP24 94 (WR14) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (WR14) Low 71 (WR27)

Scary Terry is happy with his new contract and ready to start year two with his new all-star QB. The uncertainty of his hold-in situation helped lower his ADP to an attractive WR22 pick 49 on FPPC and WR18 pick 42 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Deebo Samuel MVP25 75 (WR25) MVP24 36 (WR44) Last 3 Seasons High 115 (WR7) Low 36 (WR44)

When Deebo stays healthy, he can be a terror in Fantasy Football, especially in Best Ball, where you can ignore his down weeks. However, staying healthy was becoming increasingly complex, and the 49ers were willing to trade him to the Commanders. His ADP of WR40 pick 84 on FPPC and WR36 pick 81 on Fantasy Pros Consensus offers lots of upside potential for brave Fantasy Football Managers. 

Next Man Up: Noah Brown and Jaylin Lane    

TE: Zach Ertz MVP25 50 (TE8) MVP24 53 (TE7) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 53 (TE7)

Ertz apparently found the Fountain of Youth on his way to DC, because he had a solid season in both real football and Fantasy Football last season. Once again, he is an affordable late-round option at TE18 pick 136 on FPPC and TE18 pick 153 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Ben Sinnott