What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football, AFC North

by Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any area of life is tough. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will look at each division to highlight what to watch to try to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the AFC North. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. 

Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.

Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk; that means that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past 3 seasons will only use full seasons when possible and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

AFC North Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson was the authentic MVP of the league again last year because without him, they would have been lucky to have a winning record. They return a great offense and added some veteran leadership to a young WR room with DeAndre Hopkins. While he isn’t the playmaking force he once was in his prime, his leadership will be critical in the continued development of Zay Flowers and Rashad Bateman. The Ravens' defense could be better this season, which could hurt the Fantasy Football value of the passing game. 

QB Lamar Jackson: MVP25 125 (QB4) MVP24 141 (QB1) Last 3 Seasons High 141 (QB1) Low 82 (QB10)

QBs usually rush less as they get older, but Lamar is just rushing smarter. He is a safe early elite QB draft pick at an ADP of QB1 pick 29 on FPPC and QB1 pick 25 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Cooper Rush

RB Derrick Henry: MVP25 115 (RB6) MVP24 141 (RB2) Last 3 Seasons High 141 (RB2) Low 77 (RB21)

Last year, the tired old mantra said that an older RB signing with another team wasn’t a solid choice in Fantasy Football, but King Henry ruined that tired old myth. He is a year older but still a step or three ahead of Father Time, making him a significant investment at an ADP of RB7 pick 16 on FPPC and RB4 pick 12 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up:  Keaton Mitchell

WR: Zay Flowers: MVP25 75 (WR25) MVP24 65 (WR29) Last 3 Seasons High 75 (WR25) Low 65 (WR29) 

Flowers is one of those “Better in Real NFL” WRs than in Fantasy Football. He did come through with seven spike games (15+ PPR Points) last season, but also gives you some down weeks. He is priced right at an ADP of WR30 pick 63 on FPPC and WR27 pick 63 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

WR: Rashod Bateman: MVP25 65 (WR29) MVP24 53 (WR36) Last 3 Seasons High 53 (WR36) Low -50 (WR>50) 

Bateman only had one less spike week than Flowers last season, and there is a world where, in PPR Fantasy Football, he moves past his stablemate or becomes part of a 1oneand 1A entry at WR. His ADP is very appealing at WR60 pick 155 on FPPC and WR63 pick 164 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: DeAndre Hopkins     

TE: Mark Andrews: MVP25 70 (TE3) MVP24 64 (TE4) Last 3 Seasons High 67(TE4) Low 64 (TE4)

When he is healthy, there aren’t many TEs that are more reliable and consistent than Andrews. His ADP is very appealing since you can get Bowers/McBride type performance at a discounted price of TE7 pick 74 on FPPC and TE7 pick 86 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Issiah Likely  

AFC North Cincinnati Bengals

Last year, the Bengals' defense was awful, and it made their offensive players the darlings of Fantasy Football. This year, while they have added to the talent level on the defense, they continue to have a hard line towards their best pass rusher. This defensive situation could lead to the Bengals offense needing to score 35 points a week to win games again this season.

QB: Joe Burrow: MVP25 120 (QB4) MVP24 129 (QB4) Last 3 Seasons High 131 (QB3) Low 129 (QB4) 

Joe Cool is the best Fantasy Football quarterback who doesn’t rely on his legs for a high percentage of his points. He is my top-rated QB using my MVP Index and an excellent elite QB buy at an ADP of QB5 pick 50 on FPPC and QB4 pick 36 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Jake Browning  

 RB: Chase Brown: MVP25 120 (RB4) MVP24 129 (RB3) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 129 (RB3) 

Chase Brown was a gift to smart Fantasy Football players last season because he only needed to beat out Zach Moss. This season, he is still a great RB to draft, although the price has soared to an ADP of RB8 pick 19 on FPPC and RB10 pick 21 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Tahj Brooks 

WR: Ja’Marr Chase: MVP25 140 (WR2) MVP24 147 (WR2) Last 3 Seasons High 147 (WR2) Low 87 (WR16) 

The only concern with Chase as the consensus number pick in Fantasy Football is that there is a concern about two possible injuries that could make him a bad pick, his injury and that of his QB, B Joe Burrow. He was a WR2-level producer without Burrow. Still a great choice to lead drafts at an ADP of WR1 pick one on FPPC and WR1 pick one on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR Tee Higgins: MVP25 90 (WR15) MVP24 92 (WR14) Last 3 Seasons High 115 (WR7) Low 36 (WR44) 

One of the more innovative minds in Fantasy Football, Scott Simpson (@NimbleWnumbers), has shown that the best WR2s in the NFL can often yield the best return versus ADP over their team’s WR1. Higgins has been the poster child for that strategy, but is priced a little high this year at ADP of WR12 pick 30 on FPPC and WR14 pick 32 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Jermaine Burton 

TE: Mike Gesecki: MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 67* (TE4) Last 3 Seasons High 67* (TE4) Low -44* (TE>20)

In full games played last season, Gesecki produced TE4 numbers, but the problem is that he doesn’t get consistent enough of a snap count to be reliable in set lineup Fantasy Football formats. There might be better choices at an ADP of TE25 pick 190 on FPPC and TE25 pick 192 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Tanner Hudson or Noah Fant 

AFC North Cleveland Browns

Calling the Browns franchise a “Clown Show” would be a horrible insult to clown shows. This team is the team that signed a QB under the cloud of over 20 sexual impropriety cases to the largest guaranteed contract while also giving up a ton of draft capital. This year, they brought in four new QBs, and the oldest one won the job. It could be a long season in the Dog Pound once again this year. 

QB: Joe Flacco: MVP25 40 (QB23) MVP24 43*(QB23) Last 3 Seasons No Complete Seasons of Data 

Old Man Flacco was the last man standing, and while he might give them the best chance of winning, shouldn’t this team be building for the future? Not draftable in any format for me, despite being virtually free at an ADP of QB32 pick 348 on FPPC and QB35 pick 239 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Dillon Gabriel or Shadeur Sanders 

RB Quinshon Judkins: ROOKIE: MVP25 75 (RB21)

Another year and another controversy for one of their new players. Judkins remains unsigned as of the morning of August 20th, but is an intriguing upside gamble at an ADP of RB38 pick 108 on FPPC and RB32 pick 83 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Jerome Ford: MVP25 25 MVP24 45 Last 3 Seasons High 69 Low 45

Until Judkins or fellow rookie Sampson is read, this job belongs to the veteran Ford. Not a horrible value at an ADP of RB54 pick 143 on FPPC and RB46 pick 133 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Dylan Sampson 

WR: Jerry Jeudy: MVP25 75 (WR25) MVP24 71 (WR27) Last 3 Seasons High 92 (WR14) Low 25 (WR48)

Someone had to catch passes on this team last year with them playing from behind so often, and Jeudy was the man. His current ADP only offers a little upside value at WR33 pick 71 on FPPC and WR32 pick 70 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.   

WR: Cedrick Tillman: MVP25 60 MVP24 60* Last 3 Seasons No Complete Seasons of Data  

Tillman has incredible athletic skills, and if he puts it all together this season, he could be a great value at an ADP of WR59 pick 152 on FPPC and WR66 pick 170 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Dionte Johnson or Isaiah Bond 

TE: David Njoku: MVP25 65 (TE4) MVP24 70 (TE3) Last 3 Seasons High 70 (TE3) Low 31 (TE12)

Minor injuries always seem to derail him for a few games, but you get Top 4 value at a nice ADP of TE10 pick 79 on FPPC and TE10 pick 101 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Harold Fanin 

AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers

Coach Mike Tomlin has a fantastic record of 18 consecutive winning seasons, but that record might be challenged this season. Instead of signing Justin Fields or another young QB, they decided to invest in future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who is a shadow of his former self. They also added an exciting young rookie RB and added a dynamic playmaker at WR. This team is a tough offense to predict for Fantasy Football this season. 

QB Aaron Rodgers: MVP25 55 (QB18) MVP24 53 (QB20) Last 3 Seasons High 53 (QB20) Low 47 (QB22)

There isn’t much upside, but the price is dirt cheap at an ADP of QB29 pick 341 on FPPC and QB28 pick 183 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up:  Mason Rudolph

RB: Kaleb Johnson: ROOKIE: MVP25 80 (RB20)

The only thing that could hold back the rookie’s Fantasy Football is a split of touches at the RB position, like what we saw from the Steelers in 2023. He is still an intriguing value at an ADP of RB27 pick 72 on FPPC and RB28 pick 71 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

RB: Jaylen Warren: MVP25 50 (RB31) MVP24 36 (RB34) Last 3 Seasons High 64 (RB27) Low 36 (RB34)   

Should be in a backfield split for touches, but only provides some upside value at an ADP of RB28 pick 85 on FPPC and RB31 pick 81 on Fantasy Pros Consensus if he can win more than 50% of the touches. 

WR: DK Metcalf: MVP25 80 (WR22) MVP24 67 (WR29) Last 3 Seasons High 87 (WR17) Low 67 (WR29)

The departure of veteran WR George Pickens leaves it wide open for DK to dominate the big plays as he did back in Seattle. An interesting value at an ADP of WR21 pick 47 on FPPC and WR21 pick 48 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Roman Wilson and Calvin Austin     

TE: Johnu Smith: MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 131 (TE1) Last 3 Seasons High 131 (TE1) Low 23 (TE14)  

TE: Pat Freiermuth: MVP25 20 (TE15) MVP24 23 (TE14) Last 3 Seasons High 33 (TE11) Low -17 (TE>20)  

Neither of the Steelers TEs offers much hope for consistency in set lineup leagues, but both are intriguing late draft picks in Best Ball drafts with an ADP of TE21 pick 159 for Johnu and an ADP of TE28 pick 229 for Muth on FPPC and TE12 pick 117 for Johnu and TE26 pick 195 for Muth on Fantasy Pros Consensus.