What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football NFC North 

by Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any aspect of life is a challenging endeavor. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question “What If?” Before the season starts, review each division to identify key players to target and determine the optimal timing to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the NFC North. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team score a considerable number of points in a single points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a vpoint total for the points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The goal of the MVP Index was to combine these three outcome measures into a single, easy-to-understand number. The landmark historic median for Fantasy Football points varies by position. Using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season. 

If the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk, it means that fewer complete 10 full games were played. The high and low values over the past 3 seasons will be used for full seasons when possible, and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

NFC North Chicago. 

The third time may be the charm for the Bears when it comes to new coaches. Ben Johnson should be able to build a solid offense with all these parts and pieces, but can he also build a solid defense? Caleb Williams didn’t have an awful rookie season, but when you are the first pick in the draft, instant success is always expected. Bears fans won’t be very patient, but this offense should at least lead to lots of goodness in Fantasy Football.  

QB: Caleb Williams: MVP25 70 (QB13) MVP24 41 (QB23) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 41 (QB23) 

Any coach who can turn Jared Goff into a solid QB should be able to do the same with Caleb Williams. My educated guess is that we will still see some mistakes from Williams, but year two should be much better, and he has lots of upside at an ADP (of QB14 pick 145) in FPPC(nd QB15 pick 115 on Fantasy Pros C) consensus. 

Next Man Up: Tyson Bagent  

RBL D’Andre Swift MVP25 80 (RB20) MVP24 65 (RB26) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (RB13) Low 53 (RB31)

Swift had his best years in a Ben Johnson offense, but he was also sent packing when this same coach was in charge. He remains the best option for the Bears and has the back class to make his ADP of RB22 pick 58 on FPPC and RB23 pick 62 on Fantasy Pros Consensus a steal. 

Next Man Up: Kyle Monangai and Roschon Johnson  

WR: DJ Moore MVP25 90 (WR15) MVP24 100 (WR11) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (WR11) Low 47 (WR39)

Last year, DJM posted a solid WR1 season despite the addition of veteran Kennan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze. Allen is gone, but the Bears added another exciting rookie in Luthe Burden, which has pushed DJM’s ADP down to WR23 (pick 49 on FPPC) and WR21 (pick 46 on Fantasy Pros Consensus), providing lots of upside value. 

WR: Rome Odunze MVP25 60 (WR31) MVP24 6 (WR>55) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 6 (WR>55)

Another player who didn’t have an awful rookie season but failed to live up to draft hype in either real NFL or Fantasy Football terms. Lots of potential upside at an ADP of WR38 pick 78 on FPPC and WR39 pick 79 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Luther Burden ROOKIE MVP25 55 (WR34)

They drafted him to add him to a Ben Johnson offense, and that’s why I like his upside in the second half of the season. He is excellent value at an ADP of WR55 (pick 131 on FPPC) and WR57 (pick 142 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

Next Man Up: Olamide Zacchaeus 

TE: Coleston Loveland ROOKIE MVP25 40 (TE10)

Everyone remembers what Ben Johnson did with Sam in LaPorta, his rookie year, but the Lions had fewer options to catch passes than the Bears do this season. Still a nice late round TE value at an ADP of TE12 pick 95 on FPPC and TE11 pick 114 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Cole Kmet

NFC North Detroit Lions 

Consensus fantasy football analysts agree that the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will hurt the Lions' offensive attack this year. While that is a possible outcome, the reality is that any statistical decline is a result of a stricter, more challenging schedule. The Lions hired from within, which should keep the offensive scheme stable, resulting in numerous fantastic options for fantasy football. 

QB: Jared Goff MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 106 (QB6) Last 3 Seasons High 106 (QB6) Low 65 (QB14)

Last year, Goff had only three outdoor games all season and had his best season ever as a pro and in Fantasy Football. The schedule is more challenging this season with more outdoor games, but Goff is still a steal at an ADP of QB15 pick 153 and QB10 pick 97 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Hendon Hooker or Kyle Allen

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs MVP25 135 (RB2) MVP24 141 (RB2) Last 3 Seasons High 141 (RB2) Low 107 (RB9)

Despite being in a split backfield, Gibbs was Top 2 at RB last year in weekly value, measured by my MVP Index, and is one of the safest picks early in the first round, with an ADP of R4 pick four on FPPC and R5 pick five on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: David Montgomery MVP25 90 (RB15) MVP24 115 (RB6) Last 3 Seasons High 115 (RB6) Low 60 (RB29joiningoming to t,he Lions Monty has been a solid Fantasy Football performer and is once again priced below his mark,ewithvalue at an ADP (of RB25 pick 71) on FPPC a(nd RB22 pick 56 on Fantasy Pros C)onsensus. 

Next Man Up: Sione Vaki

WR: Amon Ra St Brown MVP25 125 (WR4) MVP24 129 (WR4) Last 3 Seasons High 144 (WR2) Low 120 (WR5)

The Sun God is the only WR in Fantasy Football to have an MVP index of 120 or higher in each of the last 3 seasons and is once again priced at a discount at an ADP of WR5 pick 13 on FPPC and Weight4 pick eight on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Jameson Williams MVP25 85 (WR18) MVP24 80 (WR22) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 80 (WR22)

In his first full season in the NFL, he posted some excellent numbers for Fantasy Football and is priced right this year at an ADP of WR26 pick 56 on FPPC and WR26 pick 58 on the Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Isaac TeSlaa

TE: Sam LaPorta MVP25 60 (TE4) MVP24 25 (TE13) Last 3 Seasons High 65 (TE4) Low 24 (TE14)

After a terrific rookie season, LaPorta experienced a large drop in Fantasy Football weekly value last season. Was this due to playing hurt or because of the emergence of other pieces in that offense? Significant upside is attractive at an ADP of TE4, pick 56 on FPPC, and TE4, pick 52 on the Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Brock Wright

NFC North Green Bay Packers

Did the addition of RB Josh Jacobs turn the Packers' first team, or was that due to their QB playing through injuries? They added a WR in the first round since Don'tson (not really, but it seems that long) and Love are healthy heading into the season, so I expect big things from this offense. All their key pieces are priced at a discount in Fantasy Football for some reason, but I am buying the dip in ADP in all formats. 

QB: Jordan Love MVP25 90 (QB7) MVP24 85 (QB9) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (QB7) Low 85 (QB9)

When he is healthy, he is a solid QB7-9 performer in Fantasy Football. Yet, you can buy him cheap this year at an ADP of QB15 (pick 153 in FPPC) and QB18 (pick 135), making him one of my favorite QBs to roster in 1QB or Superflex leagues. 

Next Man Up: Malik Willis 

RB: Josh Jacobs MVP25 120 (RB4) MVP24 141 (RB2) Last 3 Seasons High 141 (RB2) Low 85 (RB17) 

There is no threat to losing touches in that GB, RB Room, so Jacobs should once again get a heavy workload on an offense that should be better, a tremendous value at RB11 pick 24 on FPPC and RB8 pick 16 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Emanuel Wilson or MarShawn Lloyd  

WR: Matthew Golden ROOKIE MVP25 80 (WR22) 

The Packers have not invested this much draft capital in a WR since the Truman Administration. (Not factual, but it sure feels like it) The Fantasy Football Analyst noise says there are too many WRs to feed in this offense, but none of the others have a true WR1 pedigree, so give me as much Golden as I can get at an ADP of WR41 pick 85 in FPPC and WR42 pick 90 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

WR: Jayden Reed MVP25 65 (WR29) MVP24 47 (WR39) Last 3 Seasons High 80 (WR22) Low 47 (WR39)

He will be the deep threat for the Packers, and as long as Love is on the field, he is also a nice value in Fantasy Football at an ADP of WR47 (pick 105 on FPPC) and WR48 (pick 116 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

Next Man Up: Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks

TE: Tucker Kraft MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 24 (TE14) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 24 (TE14)

Each year Sententeredame enters the league, we have seen a little more of Kraft in this offense, and there appears to be much more upside improvement to come this year. He is a late-round TE option at an ADP of TE11 pick 94 on FPPC and TE11 pick 111 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Luke Musgrave 

NFC North Minnesota Vikings

The Fantasy Football consensus is that the Vikings offense could struggle with unproven JJ McCarthy. However, last year the consensus said the same thing about Sam Darnold, and his stats were identical in Fantasy Football terms to those of Kirk Cousins. Does that McCarthy has less athletic talent than Darnold? I think McCarthy will prove once and for all that Coach Kevin O’Connell is the QB whisperer. 

QB: JJ McCarthy MVP25 80 (QB11) NO PREVIOUS DATA

The best news for Vikings fans and for Fantasy Football investors in this offense was the Vikings getting rid of backup QB Sam Howell and bringing Carson Wentz out of retirement to fill that backup role. McCarthy has never been given the keys to a high-power offense. He is worth the gamble as your QB2 at an ADP of QB17 (pick 157) and QB19 (pick 141) on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Carson Wentz

RB: Aaron Jones MVP25 85 (RB17) MVP24 94 (RB14) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (RB13) Low 94(RB14)

The talk of the preseason is that Jones and Mason will split time and that will hurt Jones’ stock in Fantasy Football. Can Mason stay healthy for his half of the split all season? If not, then Ja is tremendously valuable at an ADP of RB26 pick 72 on FPPC and RB25 pick 68 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

RB: Jordan Mason MVP25 65 (RB26) MVP24 75* (RB21) Last 3 Seasons High 75*(RB21) Low 50* (RB31)

We have seen split backfields have two solid contributors, and that makes Mason an intriguing pick at an ADP of RB30 (pick 87 on FPPC) and RB34 (pick 102 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

WR: Justin Jefferson MVP25 125 (WR4) MVP24 124 (WR4) Last 3 Seasons High 124 (WR4) Low 124 (WR4)

The only thing that can slow Jefferson down is an injury; otherwise, he has proven to be one of the more QB-proof and reliable WRs in Fantasy, Football, and despite having another new QB throwing to him this season, he is a solid value at Wsix3 pick six on FPPC and Wfour2 pick four on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Jordan Addison MVP25 60 (WR31) MVP24 57 (WR33) Last 3 Seasons High 75 (WR25) Low 57 (WR33)

Addison will miss the first three games of the season due to suspension, but you weren’t drafting him to start anyway for those first three games. You draft Addison as a great Bye week and injury replacement, and he is priced with lots of upside at an ADP of WR42 pick 90 on FPPC and WR40 pick 88 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Adam Thelien and Tai Felton

TE: TJ Hockenson MVP25 65 (TE4) MVP24 25* (TE13) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (TE1) Low 63 (TE4)

The Vikings have a problem with health and depth at WR behind J, and that has pushed his ADP up quite a bit over the last few weeks. Can still have some upside at an ADP of TE5 pick 61 on FPPC and TE6 pick 64 on Fantasy Pros Consensus if he is back to his old self, a year removed from a serious injury. 

Next Man Up: Josh Oliver