What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football, AFC South 

by Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any area of life is tough. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will look at each division to highlight what to watch to try to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the AFC South.  

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. 

Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. 

Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk, which means that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past 3 seasons will only use full seasons when possible and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

AFC South Houston Texans 

Mixon carried this team into the playoffs last season, but with him a little gimpy heading into 2025, it might be time for CJ Stroud to shine. Last year, the loss of Diggs and Dell hurt the passing game, and they countered by adding two rookie WRs and some veteran help for depth. There are quite a few intriguing pieces to build a Fantasy Football team around, too.  

QB: CJ Stroud: MVP25 75 (QB12) MVP24 31 (QB24) Last 3 Seasons High 73 (QB13) Low 31 (QB24)  

Last year, the consensus on Stroud was too high, and he had a bad Fantasy Football season, but this year the cost has dropped too far, and he is a solid value at an ADP of QB18 pick 166 on FPPC and QB17 pick 129 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Davis Mills  

RB: Joe Mixon: MVP25 100 (RB13) MVP24 115 (RB6) Last 3 Seasons High 115 (RB6) Low 100 (RB13)    

Mixon is a big mystery heading into the season, with what could turn out to be a nagging injury that sidelines him too many games to accept the risk of his ADP of RB32 pick 90 on FPPC and RB23 pick 56 on Fantasy Pros

Consensus.  

RB: Nick Chubb: MVP25 50 (RB31) MVP24 0* (RB>40) Last 3 Seasons High 106 (RB11) Low 0* (RB>40)   

Chubb was signed to have a veteran backup, but it’s been a long time since he has stayed healthy enough to be a solid factor. But he is priced cheaply at an ADP of RB56 pick 149 on FPPC and RB54 pick 150 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Woody Marks  

This player is a sneaky good pick at value because he could emerge as the starter on a solid offense and is priced cheaply at an ADP of RB58 pick 162 on FPPC and RB67 pick 213 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

WR: Nico Collins: MVP25 110 (WR8) MVP24 108 (WR9) Last 3 Seasons High 114 (WR7) Low 108 (WR9)   

Collins saw a decline in his weekly value when Diggs and Dell went down with injuries, so the depth at the position is good news for his value at an ADP of WR6 pick 14 on FPPC and WR7 pick 13 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

WR: Jayden Higgins: ROOKIE: MVP25 65 (WR30)   

This rookie is a big play guy and should be a solid Fantasy Football value this season at an ultra-cheap ADP of WR51 pick 117 on FPPC and WR53 pick 124 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Christian Kirk or Jaylin Noel 

TE: Dalton Schultz: MVP25 15 (TE>15) MVP24 -29 (TE>25) Last 3 Seasons High 29 (TE13) Low -29 (TE>25)   

Should be the undisputed starting TE for the Texans, but I will pass even at an ADP of pick 287 on FPPC and pick 199 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

AFC South Indianapolis Colts

The Colts made the interesting choice of the well-traveled Daniel Jones over their first-round pick a few years ago. While Jones led the Giants to a playoff appearance a few years ago, he has struggled more often. They may be playing to get a ticket to the Arch Manning derby. While Jones hasn’t always been great for the real NFL, he might be better for their receiving options upside in Fake Football. 

QB: Daniel Jones MVP25 40 (QB23) MVP24 20 (QB25) Last 3 Seasons High 75 (QB12) Low 20 (QB25)  

Would he be able to hold on to the starting gig all season? If he can and he can play back to his back class, he could be a nice value as QB3 in Superflex leagues at QB30 pick 348 on FPPC and QB37 pick 223 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Anthony Richardson  

RB: Jonathon Taylor: MVP25 110 (RB8) MVP24 100 (RB13) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (RB13) Low 80 (RB20)    

JT has led many Fantasy Football teams to championships with great Fake Football playoff performances, but he might be priced too high at RB10 pick 23 on FPPC and RB11 pick 23 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: DJ Giddens  

WR: Michael Pittman: MVP25 80 (WR22) MVP24 25 (WR48) Last 3 Seasons High 94 (WR14) Low 25 (WR48)   

Pittman played with a bad back all season, and that killed his Fake Football production. His value is intriguing at an ADP of WR48 pick 108 on FPPC and WR49 pick 114 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

WR: Josh Downs: MVP25 75 (WR25) MVP24 71 (WR27) Last 3 Seasons High 71(WR27) Low 27 (WR47)   

The decline of Pittman led to a rise for Downs, but I wonder if that will go down as his career best. His ADP right now, WR50 pick 112 on FPPC and WR48 pick 110 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, is a bargain if he plays back to last year or improves. 

Next Man Up: Adonai Mitchell   

TE: Tyler Warren: ROOKIE: MVP25 45 (TE9)   

Could we see the third year in a row that a rookie TE wows the Fantasy Football world? Warren is priced right at an ADP of TE9 pick 79 on FPPC and TE9 pick 100 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars 

Last year was a weird year for the Jaguars with their franchise QB getting hurt. A great rookie WR gave them hope for the future, and they added more talent in the draft this year at WR with Travis Hunter and RB with Bhayshul Tuten. Figuring out who will emerge at RB is tough, but the value could reward the bold Fantasy Football Managers who guess right.  

QB: Trevor Lawrence: MVP25 80 (QB11) MVP24 67* (QB14) Last 3 Seasons High 82 (QB10) Low 80 (QB11)  

When he is healthy, he is a solid starting QB in Fantasy Football, so his ADP of QB20 pick 171 on FPPC and QB20 pick 144 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is a gift. 

Next Man Up: Nick Mullens 

RB: Trevor Ettienne: MVP25 75 (RB12) MVP24 46 (RB32) Last 3 Seasons High 106 (RB11) Low 46 (RB32)  

Whoever emerges as the starter in this backfield could be a solid starter in Fantasy Football at a great value. It might be worth taking a shot at 2 of the three leading with ETN, whose back class makes him a solid value play at ADP of RB33 pick 94 on FPPC and RB33 pick 89 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Tank Bigsby or Bhayshul Tuten

It’s a great strategy to take one of these backups because whoever emerges as the starter will be a solid starter in Fantasy Football all season, too. Both are priced right after pick 110 in FPPC and pick 120 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

WR: Brian Thomas Jr: MVP25 105 (WR10) MVP24 106 (WR10) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 106 (WR10)   

One of my favorite rookie WRs to draft at value last season, this year you are paying a premium price for last year’s success at an ADP of WR8 pick 15 on FPPC and WR8 pick 15 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

WR: Travis Hunter: ROOKIE: MVP25 75 (WR25)   

No other rookie WR has more variance in ADP in drafts this season than Hunter. If he falls 10 spots later than his ADP of WR32 pick 65 on FPPC and WR31 pick 69 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, then scoop him up fast. 

Next Man Up: 

TE: Brenton Strange: MVP25 40 (TE10) MVP24 0 (TE>15) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 0 (TE>15)  

Over the last 2 seasons, Evan Engram has been a solid Fantasy Football TE for this team, and now Strange gets that same role and is an excellent bargain at an ADP of TE17 pick 134 on FPPC and TE20 pick 166 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.   

Next Man Up: 

AFC South Tennessee Titans 

This team has struggled to find its franchise QB ever since Warren Moon and Steve McNair, but they might have found their guy in Cam Ward. They have some interesting parts and pieces surrounding him that might have solid Fantasy Football value this year. Last year, I was avoiding taking many Titans in Fake Football drafts, but this season, I like the upside that will be there if Ward is solid.  

QB: Cam Ward: ROOKIE: MVP25 65 (QB14)  

One of my most drafted QB3s in Super Flex drafts this year, and even dabbling on him as my rookie QB2 pick like I did with Daniels last season at an attractive ADP of QB24 pick 242 on FPPC and QB24 pick 163 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

RB: Tony Pollard: MVP25 70 (RB23) MVP24 56 (RB30) Last 3 Seasons High 81 (RB19) Low 56 (RB30)   

Pollard played through injuries last season, and that hurt his fantasy football value considerably. If he can handle a considerable workload, that's the issue, but his ADP is attractive at RB24 pick 67 on FPPC and RB27 pick 66 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

RB: Tyjae Spears: MVP25 55 (RB30) MVP24 75* (RB21) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 12 (RB>40)    

Could split the load with Pollard and have some bye week flex appeal if he can get healthy. His ADP is a solid value at RB45 pick 124 on FPPC and RB44 pick 113 on Fantasy Pros Consensus with the injury priced into the mix. 

Next Man Up: Kalel Mullings

Another RB worth grabbing at the tail end of leagues with larger benches like FPPC as a solid “Opportunity Index” play. 

WR: Calvin Ridley: MVP25 80 (WR22) MVP24 53 (WR35) Last 3 Seasons High 71 (WR27) Low 53 (WR35)   

Ridley is priced close to his 2024 production, and if Cam Ward is the real deal at QB, then Ridley’s upside is terrific from his ADP of WR27 pick 57 on FPPC and WR30 pick 67 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up: Elic Ayomanor or Tyler Lockett      

TE: Chig Okonkwo: MVP25 15 (TE>15) MVP24 -20 (TE>25) Last 3 Seasons High -12 (TE>25) Low -20 (TE>25)   

I will let someone else take a chance on Chig, even at his super low price of TE22 pick 160 on FPPC and TE27 pick 189 on Fantasy Pros Consensus, although I have a few shares in Best Ball.