What If: The Winners' Guide to Fantasy Football NFC South 

by Dennis Michelsen

Forecasting the future in any aspect of life is challenging. In Fantasy Football, it is very tough because the NFL game is constantly changing, and each player is one hit away from being done for the season or having an opportunity to shine. The best strategy in Fantasy Football forecasting involves asking the question, “What if?” Before the season starts, I will review each division to highlight key players to watch, aiming to stay ahead of the Fantasy Football opportunity game. Today, I look at the NFC South. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a consistent score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season. Suppose the MVP Index value shown in this article includes an asterisk; that means that fewer than 10 complete games were played. The high and low values over the past three seasons will only be used for full seasons when possible, and otherwise will be indicated with an asterisk. 

NFC South Atlanta Falcons

In sports, they always say that before you can become a real contender, you first have to get back to playing 500 ball, and the Falcons did that last year. This team is full of great talent on both sides of the ball, and the offensive side really put it all together last season. They used the last few games of 2024 as a dress rehearsal for new QB Michael Penix, and he passed the test. They could give the Bucs a run for their money in the division in real football and give us some fantastic talent on our Fantasy Football teams, too. 

 QB: Michael Penix MVP25 70 (QB13) MVP24 33* (QB24) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 33* (QB24)

The consensus from the NFL analysts was that the Falcons made a mistake by drafting Penix after signing Cousins, but their master plan seems to be working just fine. Drake London’s splits in the short sample with Penix were incredible, and Penix is a nice deep QB pick at an ADP of QB21 pick 207 and QB24 pick 177 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

 Next Man Up: Kirk Cousins  

RB: Bijan Robinson MVP25 140 (RB2) MVP24 159 (RB1) Last 3 Seasons High 159 (RB1) Low 106 (RB10)

Year two of Bijan gave us a massive jump in volume, and with that volume came RB1-level performances every week in Fantasy Football. He was the only player whose “Best 10 Game MVP Index” was a perfect 200, making him a safe pick at an ADP of RB1 pick two on FPPC and RB1 pick two on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Tyler Allgeier  

WR: Drake London MVP25 95 (WR13) MVP24 88 (WR17) Last 3 Seasons High 88 (WR17) Low 29 (WR47)

Small sample size projections are always absurd in Fantasy Football, but the way London finished the season in target share with Penix at QB is why his ADP has soared upwards this season. But there is still some upside left, even at an ADP of WR9 pick 18 on FPPC and WR10 pick 21 on Fantasy Pros Consensus if Penix is really good at his job. 

WR: Darnell Mooney MVP25 45 (WR40) MVP24 50 (WR38) Last 3 Seasons High 50 (WR38) Low -36 (WR>55)

Mooney had a career year at WR despite being the second option with the Falcons. But his ADP of WR52 pick 128 and WR52 pick 140 lacks the upside possible with many other players picked in the same segment of the draft. 

Next Man Up: Ray Ray McCloud 

TE: Kyle Pitts MVP25 35 (TE11) MVP24 23 (TE14) Last 3 Seasons High 23 (TE14) Low -30 (TE>20)

Waiting for Kyle Pitts’ breakout season has been like waiting on Laviska Shenault to break out in Fantasy Football, if you know you know. But I might be the sucker taking a chance on Pitts late with an ADP of TE15 pick 112 on FPPC and TE14 pick 130 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

NFC South Carolina Panthers

Last season, Bryce Young made significant strides forward, but his offense lacked a true game-changing playmaker to help him. This year, the Panthers have added Tetairoa, also known as Tet McMillan, who should be just the kind of playmaker every young QB craves. Their running game is still made up of journeymen RBs, but Hubbard was solid last season in fantasy football. Thielen being traded have piqued my interest in the upside of second-year WR Xavier Legette. 

QB: Bryce Young MVP25 70 (QB13) MVP24 50 (QB21) Last 3 Seasons High 50 (QB21) Low -31 (QB>30)

Next Man Up: Andy Dalton 

RB: Chuba Hubbard MVP25 70 (RB23) MVP24 100 (RB13) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (RB13) Low 69 (RB24)

I invested in numerous shares of Hubbard two years ago when he was available in Dynasty leagues for free. That investment has paid off better than expected due to the opportunities he took advantage of over the past two seasons. He is priced right at RB19 pick 49 on FPPC and 18 pick 45 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne  

WR: Tetairoa McMillan ROOKIE MVP25 95 (WR13) 

McMillan has the size, athletic ability, and opportunity to be a massive star in the NFL as a rookie and is very affordable in Fantasy Football right now at an ADP of WR19 pick 44 and WR28 pick 61 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

WR: Xavier Legette MVP25 50 (WR38) MVP24 23 (WR48) High/Low 23 (WR48) 

 There was so much to like and so much to question about Legette as a rookie, but the big play ability and the possible trade of Thielen make him an intriguing late-round pick, especially in Best Ball formats, at an ADP of WR68 pick 186 on FPPC and WR62 pick 178 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.

Next Man Up: Jalen Coker   

 TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders MVP25 15 (TE>15) MVP24 -30 (TE>25) Last 3 Seasons High/Low -30 (TE>25)

We didn’t see much last year out of Sanders, and that’s why I will let someone else roster him, even at a cheap ADP of TE27 pick 214 on FPPC and TE31 pick 257 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

NFC South New Orleans Saints

There have been many years in Saints’ history where the fans had lofty expectations for the upcoming season but quickly wore the “Aints’ Bags” by the end of the season. Conversely, there have been years when the fans didn’t expect much from the Saints, and they produced a solid season. There is a ton of talent on this team on paper, but the games are played on turf. What appears to be lacking for new Coach Kellen Moore is a proven option at quarterback. If one of the QBs on the roster or a late addition can have a solid season, this team could surprise in real football. They will produce several top performers in Fantasy Football at a nice discount. 

QB: Spencer Rattler MVP25 20 (QB25) MVP24 -40* (QB>30) Last 3 Seasons High/Low -40* (QB>30)

Whose up first at QB might not be who stays in the job all season. I guess that Rattler emerges as the QB option in Moore’s offensive scheme, but the new regime did draft Shough. Either way, I will pass on the Saints’ QB even at their waiver wire cost on both FPPC and Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Tyler Shough

RB: Alvin Kamara MVP25 100 (RB13) MVP24 121 (RB4) Last 3 Seasons High 125 (RB3) Low 67 (RB24)

Death, taxes, and a solid Fantasy Football season from Alvin Kamara seem to be the three things you can count on in life. Kellen Moore can craft an excellent offense, and that makes Kamara a steal at an ADP of RB18 pick 40 and RB16 pick 37 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Kendre Miller and Devin Neal

WR: Chris Olave MVP25 80 (WR22) MVP24 50* (WR38) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (WR11) Low 75 (WR25)

If he can avoid the big hits and stay healthy all season, then Olave is a top 10 talent in Fantasy Football, which, despite the QB troubles, makes him a great value at an ADP of WR37 (pick 77 on FPPC) and WR34 (pick 77 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

WR: Rashid Sheheed MVP25 45 (WR40) MVP24 50* (WR38) Last 3 Seasons High 50* (WR38) Low 29 (WR47)

His considerable playmaking ability could be tremendous in Fantasy Football at a critical point in time if the Saints get behind early and often, as expected this season. His ADP of WR53 pick 130 on FPPC and WR53 pick 146 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Devaughn Vele

TE: Juwan Johnson MVP25 20 (TE15) MVP24 -7 (TE>25) Last 3 Seasons High 21 (TE15) Low -7 (TE>25)

The health of the Saints’ TE Room right now is not excellent, but Johnson should be the guy to emerge as the starter when he is healthy and isn’t a bad late-round grab at TE in Best Ball drafts at an ADP outside of the top 250 on FPPC and Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

NFC South Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Last year, the Buccaneers’ defense wasn’t as good as expected, so the offense had to score more points to win, which led to Fantasy Football gold at most positions. Will the defense return to a Top 15 level this season? Can Baker Mayfield continue to show how wrong Cleveland was to give up on him? Can Bucky Irving do even better than his rookie year? Can more than one WR stay healthy at the same time? These questions and more are still awaiting answers, but there should be lots of points scored again. 

QB: Baker Mayfield MVP25 100 (QB7) MVP24 129 (QB4) Last 3 Seasons High 129 (QB4) Low -36 (QB>30)

His two-year improvement from an MVP Index below zero to over 125 has been incredible. Maybe he is the new Poster Boy for never giving up on a highly selected QB in the NFL, because that cream does rise to the top. Fantasy Football managers are non-believers based on the cheap price of ADP of QB7 pick 101 on FPPC and QB7 pick 65 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.  

Next Man Up:  Kyle Trask

RB: Bucky Irving MVP25 100 (RB13) MVP24 100 (RB13) Last 3 Seasons High/Low 100 (RB13)

Last year, on every team I drafted, I also selected Rachaad White; I also selected Bucky Irving. Playing both actually paid off until White lost snaps to injury towards the end of the season, and Bucky took over. That’s why it pays off to handcuff your own RB. Most of Bucky’s WR13-level performances came in the split, so he is priced right at the ADP of RB9 (pick 22 on FPPC) and RB10 (pick 23 on Fantasy Pros Consensus). 

RB: Rachaad White MVP25 70 (RB23) MVP24 79 (RB21) Last 3 Seasons High 100 (RB13) Low 50 (RB31)

Last year, Bucky was the obvious handcuff, and this year it has reversed. White still has value in this offense and is a cheap handcuff at ADP of RB49 pick 138 on FPPC and RB45 pick 139 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. 

Next Man Up: Sean Tucker 

WR: Mike Evans MVP25 100 (WR11) MVP24 115 (WR7) Last 3 Seasons High 115 (WR7) Low 67 (WR29)

Last year, before Chris Godwin got hurt, we saw Mike Evans post an MVP Index in the mid-70s (WR25 level), and when Godwin went down with a season-ending injury, Evans’ MVP Index soared to the 140s. (WR2 level) Godwin will spend the early part of the season on the bench, which makes Evans’ ADP of WR18 pick 42 on FPPC and WR18 pick 39 on Fantasy Pros Consensus a steal. 

WR: Chris Godwin MVP25 95 (WR13) MVP24 143* (WR2) Last 3 Seasons High 114 (WR7) Low 65 (WR29)

You are rolling the dice on Godwin if you draft him this season because it’s unsure how many games he missed and if he will be the same player, only months removed from a serious injury, but that seems to be priced into the ever-falling ADP of WR45 pick 104 on FPPC and WR44 pick 94 on Fantasy Pros Consensus. I’m willing to bet on the late-season upside. 

WR: Emeka Egbuka ROOKIE MVP25 80 (WR22) 

Even before the news that Godwin wouldn’t be ready for the early part of the season and before Jalen McMillan’s horrible injury, I was all-in on Emeka Egbuka. He was the best of a talented group of Ohio State WRs and might be the best of the bunch. His ADP of WR35 pick 75 on FPPC and WR43 pick 92 on Fantasy Pros Consensus is rising fast, so you might need to draft him up to 20 spots earlier if you want him on your roster. 

Next Man Up: Trey Palmer      

TE: Cade Otton MVP25 35 (TE13) MVP24 21 (TE15) Last 3 Seasons High 21 (TE15) Low -18 (TE>20)

As the Bucs’ WRs kept losing time due to injury, Otton became a more critical part of the attack. This year, he could continue to develop even with a full complement of WRs because he earned Baker’s trust. He is a solid TE2 value at an ADP of TE28 pick 198 on FPPC and TE23 pick 208 on Fantasy Pros Consensus.